Is William Blair a reliable analyst?

In short — Over 1 year, 77.7% of William Blair's targets proved profitable, for an average gain of +29.6% per call (all calls, winners and losers) — i.e. +13.3% vs its sector, across 94 timestamped calls replayed against real prices. JPI verdict: fairly reliable. An analyst can be good in one sector and poor in another — details below.

77.7%profitable calls

+29.6%avg gain / call

+13.3%vs sector

94scored calls

In which sectors is William Blair reliable?

Sector

Calls

% profitable

Avg gain 2015+

Avg gain 2020+

Last 12 months

▸ Cons. disc.

77.8%

+59.4%

+71.9%

+6.1% (1)

Stock	Rating	Issued	Matures (1yr)	Price at call	Target	End price	Targeted	Result
SBUX	▲ Outperform	Jan 23, 26	Jan 23, 27	$97.62	—	$103.61	—	+6% so far
TSLA	▲ Outperform	Aug 29, 24	Aug 29, 25	$214.11	—	$329.73	—	+53.8%
CVNA	▲ Outperform	Feb 23, 24	Feb 22, 25	$13.85	—	$43.21	—	+211.5%
ABNB	▲ Outperform	Jan 5, 21	Jan 5, 22	$142.77	—	$159.9	—	+11.9%
DASH	▲ Outperform	Jan 4, 21	Jan 4, 22	$139.19	—	$136.41	—	-2.4%
CMG	▲ Outperform	Mar 6, 20	Mar 6, 21	$14.46	—	$26.75	—	+84.6%
SBUX	▲ Outperform	Jan 26, 18	Jan 26, 19	$57.02	—	$66.71	—	+17.3%
CVNA	▲ Outperform	May 23, 17	May 23, 18	$2.16	—	$5.23	—	+142.2%

Sample (7 recent finished + 1 in progress) of 9 calls.

▸ Industry

87%

+38.3%

+56.2%

+43.8% (5)

Stock	Rating	Issued	Matures (1yr)	Price at call	Target	End price	Targeted	Result
BLDR	▲ Outperform	Feb 26, 26	Feb 26, 27	$104.29	—	$78.42	—	-25% so far
XYL	▲ Outperform	Jan 26, 26	Jan 26, 27	$143.35	—	$120.65	—	-16% so far
FIX	▲ Outperform	Sep 11, 25	Sep 11, 26	$753.69	—	$1683.44	—	+123% so far
EME	▲ Outperform	Sep 11, 25	Sep 11, 26	$629.08	—	$768.38	—	+22% so far
VRT	▲ Outperform	Jul 28, 25	Jul 28, 26	$142.7	—	$305.58	—	+114% so far
GWW	▲ Outperform	Mar 10, 25	Mar 10, 26	$1015.84	—	$1107.27	—	+8.9%
FAST	▲ Outperform	Mar 10, 25	Mar 10, 26	$39.9	—	$46.28	—	+16%
RSG	▲ Outperform	Oct 3, 24	Oct 3, 25	$200.67	—	$222.74	—	+11.2%

Sample (3 recent finished + 5 in progress) of 23 calls.

▸ Tech

81%

+40.1%

+26.7%

+47.3% (2)

Stock	Rating	Issued	Matures (1yr)	Price at call	Target	End price	Targeted	Result
MU	▲ Outperform	Jan 22, 26	Jan 22, 27	$397.58	—	$938.38	—	+136% so far
CTSH	▲ Outperform	Nov 21, 25	Nov 21, 26	$74.92	—	$43.94	—	-41% so far
ROP	▲ Outperform	May 5, 25	May 5, 26	$571.13	—	$354.1	—	-37.6%
AVGO	▲ Outperform	Sep 18, 24	Sep 18, 25	$167.42	—	$344.89	—	+106%
NVDA	▲ Outperform	Sep 18, 24	Sep 18, 25	$117.87	—	$176.81	—	+49.9%
ORCL	▲ Outperform	Mar 12, 24	Mar 12, 25	$127.54	—	$150.5	—	+18.3%
ADSK	▲ Outperform	Apr 17, 23	Apr 16, 24	$197.09	—	$228.62	—	+15.8%
ADBE	▲ Outperform	Jan 17, 23	Jan 17, 24	$341.31	—	$593.88	—	+74%

Sample (6 recent finished + 2 in progress) of 21 calls.

▸ Health

66.7%

+12.8%

+9.4%

+5.1% (6)

Stock	Rating	Issued	Matures (1yr)	Price at call	Target	End price	Targeted	Result
MCK	▲ Outperform	Apr 28, 26	Apr 28, 27	$835	—	$807.33	—	-3% so far
CAH	▲ Outperform	Apr 28, 26	Apr 28, 27	$205.61	—	$239.71	—	+17% so far
MDT	▲ Outperform	Jan 6, 26	Jan 6, 27	$99.77	—	$83.83	—	-16% so far
WAT	▲ Outperform	Jan 5, 26	Jan 5, 27	$394.97	—	$374.93	—	-5% so far
CRL	▲ Outperform	Oct 6, 25	Oct 6, 26	$170.1	—	$228.68	—	+34% so far
TMO	▲ Outperform	Aug 19, 25	Aug 19, 26	$498.29	—	$516.62	—	+4% so far
CRL	▲ Outperform	Jan 14, 25	Jan 14, 26	$173.91	—	$222.6	—	+28.5%
AMGN	▲ Outperform	May 3, 24	May 3, 25	$299.48	—	$281.51	—	-6.5%

Sample (2 recent finished + 6 in progress) of 18 calls.

▸ Finance

60%

+1.4%

-0.5%

—

Stock	Rating	Issued	Matures (1yr)	Price at call	Target	End price	Targeted	Result
COIN	▲ Outperform	Jun 11, 25	Jun 11, 26	$250.68	—	$160.44	—	-36%
ALL	▲ Sector Outperform	Jun 6, 25	Jun 6, 26	$200.77	—	$214.82	—	+7.1%
NDAQ	▲ Outperform	Nov 25, 24	Nov 25, 25	$82.65	—	$90.09	—	+8.9%
CB	▼ Underperform	Jun 28, 24	Jun 28, 25	$254.82	—	$290.49	—	-13.7%
JKHY	▲ Outperform	Jan 11, 23	Jan 11, 24	$181.1	—	$166.61	—	-7.6%
AIZ	▲ Outperform	Jul 23, 21	Jul 23, 22	$155.02	—	$172.07	—	+10.9%
TRV	▲ Outperform	Jul 20, 20	Jul 20, 21	$118.77	—	$150.84	—	+27.2%
AIG	▲ Outperform	Jul 19, 19	Jul 18, 20	$55.94	—	$31.33	—	-43.8%

Sample (8 recent finished + 0 in progress) of 15 calls.

The stocks William Blair covers (track record per stock)

Stock

Calls

% profitable

Avg gain 2015+

Avg gain 2020+

Last 12 months

▸ LII Lennox International

100%

+53.3%

+66.0%

—

Stock	Rating	Issued	Matures (1yr)	Price at call	Target	End price	Targeted	Result
LII	▲ Outperform	Jul 13, 23	Jul 12, 24	$337.33	—	$556.59	—	+65.2%
LII	▲ Outperform	Jul 12, 23	Jul 11, 24	$334.3	—	$558.28	—	+66.8%
LII	▲ Outperform	Jan 12, 16	Jan 11, 17	$118.39	—	$151.54	—	+27.8%

% profitable = share of its calls that made money (1 year). Avg gain / call = average absolute gain per call (winners and losers). Point-in-time, S&P 500 backtest.