Toll Brothers (TOL): are the analysts right?

Toll Brothers · Consumer Discretionary · ref. ETF XLY · 140 calls · price $163.63
What the company does: Toll Brothers conçoit et construit des maisons de luxe et condominiums dans communautés résidentielles aux États-Unis.
📈 1-year price
$151.64+29.6% over range
Jul 8, 25low $113.78 · high $166.12Jul 7, 26
📏 Click 2 points (left → right) to measure the change · click again to clear.
SellBuy
Buy
69% recommend buying · 13 analysts
⚠️ The stock trades above the median target: it has beaten expectations. The “Buy” reflects conviction on the company, but the remaining quantified upside is low/negative.

🎯 Analyst price target on TOL

High target · 3 analysts$187+14.3%
Median target · 12 analysts$163.5-0.1%
Low target · 1 analyst$115-29.7%
Current price$163.63

🗳️ The analyst consensus

Analyst breakdown · 13 (6 months)
Strong Buy0%
Buy69%
Hold23%
Sell8%
Strong Sell0%

💰 Toll Brothers dividend

0.64%annual yield
📈 Steady dividend5 yrs of consecutive dividend increases
That's ~$1.01 per share per year.

✅ Historical analyst reliability on TOL

Most reliable analysts on TOL (% profitable · 365j · ≥2 calls)
Raymond James 83% +47.3% 12
UBS 70% +37.4% 10
RBC Capital 67% +20.5% 12
Oppenheimer 58% +25.2% 12
B of A Securities 58% +16.6% 12
Goldman Sachs 33% -25.4% 9
Barclays 25% -36.7% 12

📊 What $1,000 invested in Toll Brothers would be worth

In short — $1,000 invested in Toll Brothers 10 years ago would be worth $4,947 today, i.e. +17%/yr on average. Best year: 2023 (+106%), worst: 2018 (-31%). Price performance, excluding dividends.

If I'd invested $1,000 in Toll Brothers

InvestmentWorth todayGain
1 years ago$1,308+31%
3 years ago$3,300+230%
5 years ago$3,790+279%
10 years ago$4,947+395%
since inception (1986)$161,393+16039%

Return by year (Toll Brothers)

YearReturn$1,000 invested at year start
2026 (YTD)+22%$1,218 (+22%)
2025+7%$1,308 (+31%)
2024+23%$1,603 (+60%)
2023+106%$3,300 (+230%)
2022-31%$2,276 (+128%)
2021+67%$3,790 (+279%)
2020+10%$4,170 (+317%)
2019+20%$5,003 (+400%)
2018-31%$3,431 (+243%)
2017+55%$5,315 (+431%)
2016-7%$4,947 (+395%)
⚠️ Past performance, not predictive nor advice. Prices in $, excluding dividends. Yahoo Finance data.

🔎 Detailed analyses

👥 Analysts & forecasts📊 Returns & performance💰 Dividend
📈 Fundamentals, technical momentum and live news will show here on the final site (loaded live from the same origin as the API).

📋 All analyst calls on TOL

RBC Capital
Jun 11, 26
▲ Outperform · 🎯$158
Price at call : $147.1 — upside +7%
Today : $163.63 — upside -3%
🎯 on TOL : 67% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 55.2% · +4.6% (172 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jun 11, 27
▲ Outperform · 🎯$161
Price at call : $138.9 — upside +16%
Today : $163.63 — upside -2%
🎯 on TOL : 43% (7 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 22.2% · -3.8% (9 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jun 9, 27
UBS
May 21, 26
▲ Buy · 🎯$187
Price at call : $134.33 — upside +39%
Today : $163.63 — upside +14%
🎯 on TOL : 70% (10 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 43.2% · +1.5% (206 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : May 21, 27
▲ Outperform · 🎯$185
Price at call : $134.33 — upside +38%
Today : $163.63 — upside +13%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.4% · -6.7% (90 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : May 21, 27
▲ Buy · 🎯$165
Price at call : $134.33 — upside +23%
Today : $163.63 — upside +1%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 41.8% · -3.3% (170 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : May 21, 27
RBC Capital
May 21, 26
▲ Outperform · 🎯$158
Price at call : $134.33 — upside +18%
Today : $163.63 — upside -3%
🎯 on TOL : 67% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 55.2% · +4.6% (172 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : May 21, 27
▲ Buy · 🎯$170
Price at call : $146.68 — upside +16%
Today : $163.63 — upside +4%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 41.8% · -3.3% (170 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 16, 27
▲ Outperform · 🎯$176
Price at call : $141.31 — upside +25%
Today : $163.63 — upside +8%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.4% · -6.7% (90 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 13, 27
Barclays
Apr 8, 26
▼ Underweight · 🎯$115
Price at call : $140.23 — upside -18%
Today : $163.63 — upside -30%
🎯 on TOL : 25% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.9% · +3.0% (378 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 8, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 69.2% · +14.7% (26 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 7, 27
Citigroup
Feb 26, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$162
Price at call : $157.24 — gap to target +3%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -1%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.2% · -5.9% (313 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 26, 27
■ Market Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$170
Price at call : $157.11 — gap to target +8%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target +4%
🎯 on TOL : 43% (7 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 22.2% · -3.8% (9 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 25, 27
JP Morgan
Feb 23, 26
▲ Overweight · 🎯$143
Price at call : $159.63 — upside -10%
Today : $163.63 — upside -13%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 45.8% · +0.7% (360 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 23, 27
UBS
Feb 19, 26
▲ Buy · 🎯$198
Price at call : $162 — upside +22%
Today : $163.63 — upside +21%
🎯 on TOL : 70% (10 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 43.2% · +1.5% (206 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 19, 27
Oppenheimer
Feb 19, 26
▲ Outperform · 🎯$180
Price at call : $162 — upside +11%
Today : $163.63 — upside +10%
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 36.9% · -3.4% (65 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 19, 27
RBC Capital
Feb 19, 26
▲ Outperform · 🎯$161
Price at call : $162 — upside -1%
Today : $163.63 — upside -2%
🎯 on TOL : 67% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 55.2% · +4.6% (172 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 19, 27
■ In-Line neutral · not a buy · 🎯$174
Price at call : $162 — gap to target +7%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target +6%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.4% · -6.7% (90 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 19, 27
Wells Fargo
Feb 19, 26
▲ Overweight · 🎯$185
Price at call : $162 — upside +14%
Today : $163.63 — upside +13%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 19, 27
Citizens
Feb 18, 26
▲ Market Outperform · 🎯$175
Price at call : $160 — upside +9%
Today : $163.63 — upside +7%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 unranked overall
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 18, 27
Oppenheimer
Feb 10, 26
▲ Outperform · 🎯$177
Price at call : $161.47 — upside +10%
Today : $163.63 — upside +8%
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 36.9% · -3.4% (65 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 10, 27
Wells Fargo
Jan 14, 26
▲ Overweight · 🎯$170
Price at call : $149.04 — upside +14%
Today : $163.63 — upside +4%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jan 14, 27
Goldman Sachs
Jan 13, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$156
Price at call : $144.92 — gap to target +8%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -5%
🎯 on TOL : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 51.2% · +4.7% (256 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jan 13, 27
Citizens
Jan 7, 26
▲ Market Outperform · 🎯$175
Price at call : $134.8 — upside +30%
Today : $163.63 — upside +7%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 unranked overall
in progress (365j)
matures : Jan 7, 27
JP Morgan
Dec 12, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$141
Price at call : $140.46 — upside +0%
Today : $163.63 — upside -14%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 45.8% · +0.7% (360 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 12, 26
Citigroup
Dec 11, 25
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$141
Price at call : $139.15 — gap to target +1%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -14%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.2% · -5.9% (313 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 11, 26
Barclays
Dec 11, 25
▼ Underweight · 🎯$110
Price at call : $139.15 — upside -21%
Today : $163.63 — upside -33%
🎯 on TOL : 25% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.9% · +3.0% (378 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 11, 26
■ Market Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$143
Price at call : $139.82 — gap to target +2%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -13%
🎯 on TOL : 43% (7 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 22.2% · -3.8% (9 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 11, 26
UBS
Dec 10, 25
▲ Buy · 🎯$181
Price at call : $139.82 — upside +29%
Today : $163.63 — upside +11%
🎯 on TOL : 70% (10 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 43.2% · +1.5% (206 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 10, 26
RBC Capital
Dec 10, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$144
Price at call : $139.82 — upside +3%
Today : $163.63 — upside -12%
🎯 on TOL : 67% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 55.2% · +4.6% (172 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 10, 26
JP Morgan
Dec 4, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$161
Price at call : $141.06 — upside +14%
Today : $163.63 — upside -2%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 45.8% · +0.7% (360 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 4, 26
▲ Buy · 🎯$150
Price at call : $127.67 — upside +17%
Today : $163.63 — upside -8%
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 46.8% · +1.2% (308 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Oct 10, 26
■ In-Line neutral · not a buy · 🎯$160
Price at call : $132.15 — gap to target +21%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -2%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.4% · -6.7% (90 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Oct 7, 26
Citigroup
Oct 1, 25
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$147
Price at call : $139.55 — gap to target +5%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -10%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.2% · -5.9% (313 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Oct 1, 26
▲ Buy · 🎯$155
Price at call : $139.69 — upside +11%
Today : $163.63 — upside -5%
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 46.8% · +1.2% (308 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Sep 18, 26
Wedbush
Sep 5, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$165
Price at call : $147.37 — upside +12%
Today : $163.63 — upside +1%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 49.2% · +6.9% (242 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Sep 5, 26
▲ Buy · 🎯$165
Price at call : $147.37 — upside +12%
Today : $163.63 — upside +1%
🎯 on TOL : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 32.3% · -2.0% (31 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Sep 5, 26
■ Market Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$145
Price at call : $139 — gap to target +4%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -11%
🎯 on TOL : 43% (7 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 22.2% · -3.8% (9 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 28, 26
Wedbush
Aug 26, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$165
Price at call : $137.7 — upside +20%
Today : $163.63 — upside +1%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 49.2% · +6.9% (242 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 26, 26
Raymond James
Aug 25, 25
▲ Strong Buy · 🎯$160
Price at call : $137.7 — upside +16%
Today : $163.63 — upside -2%
🎯 on TOL : 83% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 49.8% · +7.5% (213 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 25, 26
Citigroup
Aug 25, 25
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$138
Price at call : $137.7 — gap to target +0%
Today : $163.63 — gap to target -16%
🎯 on TOL : no call matured yet · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 34.2% · -5.9% (313 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 25, 26
Wells Fargo
Aug 21, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$160
Price at call : $139.17 — upside +15%
Today : $163.63 — upside -2%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 21, 26
RBC Capital
Aug 21, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$145
Price at call : $139.17 — upside +4%
Today : $163.63 — upside -11%
🎯 on TOL : 67% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 55.2% · +4.6% (172 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 21, 26
▲ Buy · 🎯$145
Price at call : $131.43 — upside +10%
Today : $163.63 — upside -11%
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 46.8% · +1.2% (308 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 19, 26
Wells Fargo
Aug 18, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$150
Price at call : $132.18 — upside +13%
Today : $163.63 — upside -8%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 18, 26
Wedbush
Aug 12, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$165
Price at call : $128.29 — upside +29%
Today : $163.63 — upside +1%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 49.2% · +6.9% (242 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 12, 26
Wells Fargo
Aug 1, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$140
Price at call : $124.99 — upside +12%
Today : $163.63 — upside -14%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 1, 26
▲ Buy · 🎯$161
Price at call : $126.75 — upside +27%
Today : $163.63 — upside -2%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 69.2% · +14.7% (26 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jul 23, 26
Wells Fargo
Jul 8, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$135
Price at call : $117 — upside +15%
Today : $163.63 — upside -17%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jul 8, 26
Wells Fargo
Jun 27, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$130
Price at call : $114.3 — upside +14%
Today : $163.63 — upside -21%
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jun 27, 26
Wells Fargo
Jun 3, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$125
Price at call : $105.48 — upside +19%
Today : $163.63 — upside -24%
Expected +19% · Actual +30% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.5% · +6.5% (326 calls)
+30.3%
stock +30% · XLY +8%
Raymond James
May 23, 25
▲ Strong Buy · 🎯$130
Price at call : $107.93 — upside +20%
Today : $163.63 — upside -21%
Expected +20% · Actual +28% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 83% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 49.8% · +7.5% (213 calls)
+27.7%
stock +28% · XLY +10%
RBC Capital
May 16, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$133
Price at call : $106.05 — upside +25%
Today : $163.63 — upside -19%
Expected +25% · Actual +20% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 67% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 55.2% · +4.6% (172 calls)
+19.7%
stock +20% · XLY +7%
Oppenheimer
May 15, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$155
Price at call : $107.26 — upside +45%
Today : $163.63 — upside -5%
Expected +45% · Actual +18% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 36.9% · -3.4% (65 calls)
+18.4%
stock +18% · XLY +7%
Wedbush
May 15, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$175
Price at call : $107.26 — upside +63%
Today : $163.63 — upside +7%
Expected +63% · Actual +18% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 49.2% · +6.9% (242 calls)
+18.4%
stock +18% · XLY +7%
▲ Buy · 🎯$132
Price at call : $92.13 — upside +43%
Today : $163.63 — upside -19%
Expected +43% · Actual +60% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 46.8% · +1.2% (308 calls)
+59.9%
stock +60% · XLY +33%
Barclays
Apr 8, 25
▼ Underweight · 🎯$92
Price at call : $95.5 — upside -4%
Today : $163.63 — upside -44%
Expected -4% · Actual +47% · Reason (≤ −15%) : ✗ No
🎯 on TOL : 25% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.9% · +3.0% (378 calls)
-46.8%
stock +47% · XLY +15%
Barclays
Feb 25, 25
▼ Underweight · 🎯$101
Price at call : $114.6 — upside -12%
Today : $163.63 — upside -38%
Expected -12% · Actual +37% · Reason (≤ −15%) : ✗ No
🎯 on TOL : 25% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 48.9% · +3.0% (378 calls)
-37.1%
stock +37% · XLY +8%
Oppenheimer
Feb 20, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$165
Price at call : $111.48 — upside +48%
Today : $163.63 — upside +1%
Expected +48% · Actual +42% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 58% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 36.9% · -3.4% (65 calls)
+42.1%
stock +42% · XLY +5%
RBC Capital
Feb 20, 25
▲ Outperform · 🎯$139
Price at call : $111.48 — upside +25%
Today : $163.63 — upside -15%
Expected +25% · Actual +42% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 67% (12 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 55.2% · +4.6% (172 calls)
+42.1%
stock +42% · XLY +5%
UBS
Feb 20, 25
▲ Buy · 🎯$183
Price at call : $111.48 — upside +64%
Today : $163.63 — upside +12%
Expected +64% · Actual +42% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on TOL : 70% (10 calls matureds) · 📊 on Cons. disc. : 43.2% · +1.5% (206 calls)
+42.1%
stock +42% · XLY +5%
JPI AI Analyst AI assistant · JPI Invest
Answers based on the tool’s data · not financial advice · full version (free)