Is Keefe, Bruyette & Woods a reliable analyst?

In short — Over 1 year, 63.4% of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods's targets proved profitable, for an average gain of +9.7% per call (all calls, winners and losers) — i.e. -0.4% vs its sector, across 432 timestamped calls replayed against real prices. JPI verdict: mixed reliability. An analyst can be good in one sector and poor in another — details below.
63.4%profitable calls
+9.7%avg gain / call
-0.4%vs sector
432scored calls

In which sectors is Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reliable?

SectorCalls % profitable Avg gain 2015+ Avg gain 2020+ Last 12 months
Finance40665%+10.3%+12.2%+8.7% (122)
Cons. disc.1942.1%+5.0%-1.0%+3.5% (1)

The stocks Keefe, Bruyette & Woods covers (track record per stock)

StockCalls % profitable Avg gain 2015+ Avg gain 2020+ Last 12 months
C Citigroup4100%+68.3%+68.3%+22.7% (4)
WFC Wells Fargo560%+16.9%+50.6%
KKR KKR & Co.1566.7%+35.9%+43.9%-33.3% (1)
GS Goldman Sachs887.5%+28.3%+36.8%
GL Globe Life5100%+35.6%+35.6%+26.7% (3)
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp450%+3.2%+35.4%
ARES Ares Management862.5%+20.0%+35.2%-28.6% (2)
IVZ Invesco1060%+7.1%+34.2%
SYF Synchrony Financial475%+19.6%+29.0%-2.7% (2)
RF Regions Financial Corporation5100%+32.9%+28.5%+14.4% (2)
AIZ Assurant5100%+22.7%+27.4%+21.8% (3)
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation875%+23.5%+26.3%+7.1% (2)
JPM JPMorgan Chase666.7%+24.1%+13.5% (2)
KEY KeyCorp1190.9%+20.2%+23.8%+11.6% (1)
NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc.875%+24.4%+23.2%-8.9% (1)
STT State Street Corporation1040%-0.4%+22.8%+35.0% (3)
APO Apollo Global Management862.5%+22.7%+22.7%-10.8% (1)
HIG Hartford (The)10100%+21.9%+22.3%+4.9% (4)
AIG American International Group1376.9%+18.0%+19.5%+4.5% (4)
ALL Allstate17100%+16.7%+18.8%+22.0% (6)
PYPL PayPal666.7%+17.6%+17.6%-32.8% (1)
BLK BlackRock1471.4%+10.4%+17.4%-8.6% (6)
TRV Travelers Companies (The)4100%+17.2%+17.2%+22.1% (6)
TFC Truist Financial771.4%+16.7%+16.7%
CINF Cincinnati Financial6100%+16.0%+16.0%+19.3% (7)
% profitable = share of its calls that made money (1 year). Avg gain / call = average absolute gain per call (winners and losers). Point-in-time, S&P 500 backtest.
JPI AI Analyst AI assistant · JPI Invest
Answers based on the tool’s data · not financial advice · full version (free)