These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2018 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LITE Lumentum | +89% |
| 2 | ODFL Old Dominion | +54% |
| 3 | SYF Synchrony Financial | +54% |
| 4 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +52% |
| 5 | T AT&T | +37% |
| 6 | CFG Citizens Financial Group | +37% |
| 7 | COF Capital One | +36% |
| 8 | AWK American Water Works | +35% |
| 9 | LH Labcorp | +34% |
| 10 | BDX Becton Dickinson | +21% |
| 11 | DAL Delta Air Lines | +17% |
| 12 | CSX CSX Corporation | +17% |
| 13 | CVS CVS Health | +13% |
| 14 | FTV Fortive | +13% |
| 15 | NI NiSource | +10% |
| 16 | CNC Centene Corporation | +9% |
| 17 | NTAP NetApp | +4% |
| 18 | HPQ HP Inc. | +0% |
| 19 | FDX FedEx | -6% |
| 20 | TPR Tapestry, Inc. | -20% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LITE Lumentum | +89% |
| 2 | WDC Western Digital | +72% |
| 3 | AMP Ameriprise Financial | +60% |
| 4 | ODFL Old Dominion | +54% |
| 5 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +52% |
| 6 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | +48% |
| 7 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +46% |
| 8 | SRE Sempra | +40% |
| 9 | T AT&T | +37% |
| 10 | LH Labcorp | +34% |
| 11 | WMT Walmart | +28% |
| 12 | VLO Valero Energy | +25% |
| 13 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +23% |
| 14 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +20% |
| 15 | BKR Baker Hughes | +19% |
| 16 | CSX CSX Corporation | +17% |
| 17 | STLD Steel Dynamics | +13% |
| 18 | FTV Fortive | +13% |
| 19 | FDX FedEx | -6% |
| 20 | HAL Halliburton | -8% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LITE Lumentum | +89% |
| 2 | WDC Western Digital | +72% |
| 3 | ODFL Old Dominion | +54% |
| 4 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +52% |
| 5 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | +48% |
| 6 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +46% |
| 7 | LEN Lennar | +43% |
| 8 | SRE Sempra | +40% |
| 9 | NEE NextEra Energy | +39% |
| 10 | ETR Entergy | +39% |
| 11 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +31% |
| 12 | WMT Walmart | +28% |
| 13 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +23% |
| 14 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +20% |
| 15 | BKR Baker Hughes | +19% |
| 16 | CSX CSX Corporation | +17% |
| 17 | SLB Schlumberger | +11% |
| 18 | CNC Centene Corporation | +9% |
| 19 | FDX FedEx | -6% |
| 20 | HAL Halliburton | -8% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | +34% | +29% |
| 2020 | +37% | +16% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +84% | +50% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2019 returned +33.7% on average over 12 months, vs 28.8% for the index. The best was LITE (Lumentum) at +89%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2018 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.