These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2017 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +36% |
| 2 | TDG TransDigm Group | +24% |
| 3 | CNC Centene Corporation | +14% |
| 4 | PYPL PayPal | +14% |
| 5 | CSX CSX Corporation | +13% |
| 6 | WMT Walmart | -6% |
| 7 | ODFL Old Dominion | -6% |
| 8 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | -6% |
| 9 | FTV Fortive | -6% |
| 10 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | -12% |
| 11 | LITE Lumentum | -14% |
| 12 | RJF Raymond James Financial | -17% |
| 13 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -18% |
| 14 | MET MetLife | -19% |
| 15 | PCAR Paccar | -20% |
| 16 | MNST Monster Beverage | -22% |
| 17 | MS Morgan Stanley | -24% |
| 18 | T AT&T | -27% |
| 19 | INCY Incyte | -33% |
| 20 | FDX FedEx | -35% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BSX Boston Scientific | +43% |
| 2 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +31% |
| 3 | ADSK Autodesk | +23% |
| 4 | TJX TJX Companies | +17% |
| 5 | CNC Centene Corporation | +14% |
| 6 | CSX CSX Corporation | +13% |
| 7 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | -4% |
| 8 | WMT Walmart | -6% |
| 9 | EXPE Expedia Group | -6% |
| 10 | ODFL Old Dominion | -6% |
| 11 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -18% |
| 12 | GM General Motors | -18% |
| 13 | MMM 3M | -19% |
| 14 | PCAR Paccar | -20% |
| 15 | LH Labcorp | -21% |
| 16 | MNST Monster Beverage | -22% |
| 17 | FDX FedEx | -35% |
| 18 | EQT EQT Corporation | -39% |
| 19 | WDC Western Digital | -53% |
| 20 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | -58% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MKC McCormick & Company | +37% |
| 2 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +36% |
| 3 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +31% |
| 4 | TJX TJX Companies | +17% |
| 5 | CNC Centene Corporation | +14% |
| 6 | CSX CSX Corporation | +13% |
| 7 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +6% |
| 8 | ETR Entergy | +6% |
| 9 | SRE Sempra | +1% |
| 10 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | -4% |
| 11 | WMT Walmart | -6% |
| 12 | ODFL Old Dominion | -6% |
| 13 | FTV Fortive | -6% |
| 14 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | -12% |
| 15 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -18% |
| 16 | MNST Monster Beverage | -22% |
| 17 | T AT&T | -27% |
| 18 | INCY Incyte | -33% |
| 19 | EQT EQT Corporation | -39% |
| 20 | WDC Western Digital | -53% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | -9% | -6% |
| 2019 | +34% | +29% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +22% | +21% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2018 returned -9.2% on average over 12 months, vs -6.3% for the index. The best was BSX (Boston Scientific) at +43%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2017 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.