These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2016 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNC Centene Corporation | +79% |
| 2 | NTAP NetApp | +57% |
| 3 | WDAY Workday, Inc. | +54% |
| 4 | ODFL Old Dominion | +53% |
| 5 | CRM Salesforce | +49% |
| 6 | GPN Global Payments | +44% |
| 7 | MNST Monster Beverage | +43% |
| 8 | TROW T. Rowe Price | +39% |
| 9 | AMT American Tower | +35% |
| 10 | FDX FedEx | +34% |
| 11 | MMM 3M | +32% |
| 12 | YUM Yum! Brands | +29% |
| 13 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +25% |
| 14 | EXC Exelon | +11% |
| 15 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | +10% |
| 16 | MKC McCormick & Company | +9% |
| 17 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +7% |
| 18 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +5% |
| 19 | HRL Hormel Foods | +5% |
| 20 | GILD Gilead Sciences | +0% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNC Centene Corporation | +79% |
| 2 | ON ON Semiconductor | +64% |
| 3 | WDAY Workday, Inc. | +54% |
| 4 | GPN Global Payments | +44% |
| 5 | MSFT Microsoft | +38% |
| 6 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | +30% |
| 7 | INTC Intel | +27% |
| 8 | ADI Analog Devices | +23% |
| 9 | STLD Steel Dynamics | +21% |
| 10 | WDC Western Digital | +17% |
| 11 | MGM MGM Resorts | +16% |
| 12 | PM Philip Morris International | +16% |
| 13 | DAL Delta Air Lines | +14% |
| 14 | MDT Medtronic | +13% |
| 15 | TDG TransDigm Group | +10% |
| 16 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | +10% |
| 17 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +7% |
| 18 | NUE Nucor | +7% |
| 19 | GILD Gilead Sciences | +0% |
| 20 | CVS CVS Health | -8% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | +103% |
| 2 | CNC Centene Corporation | +79% |
| 3 | NTAP NetApp | +57% |
| 4 | WDAY Workday, Inc. | +54% |
| 5 | ODFL Old Dominion | +53% |
| 6 | CRM Salesforce | +49% |
| 7 | MNST Monster Beverage | +43% |
| 8 | FDX FedEx | +34% |
| 9 | YUM Yum! Brands | +29% |
| 10 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +25% |
| 11 | WDC Western Digital | +17% |
| 12 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +15% |
| 13 | EXC Exelon | +11% |
| 14 | TDG TransDigm Group | +10% |
| 15 | NEM Newmont | +10% |
| 16 | MKC McCormick & Company | +9% |
| 17 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +7% |
| 18 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +5% |
| 19 | GILD Gilead Sciences | +0% |
| 20 | UAL United Airlines Holdings | -7% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +24% | +19% |
| 2018 | -9% | -6% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +13% | +12% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2017 returned +24.1% on average over 12 months, vs 19.4% for the index. The best was CNC (Centene Corporation) at +79%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2016 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.