These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2015 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU Micron Technology | +55% |
| 2 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +52% |
| 3 | CFG Citizens Financial Group | +36% |
| 4 | AKAM Akamai Technologies | +27% |
| 5 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +24% |
| 6 | MAR Marriott International | +23% |
| 7 | CMCSA Comcast | +22% |
| 8 | YUM Yum! Brands | +21% |
| 9 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +20% |
| 10 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +19% |
| 11 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +15% |
| 12 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets | +14% |
| 13 | DHR Danaher Corporation | +11% |
| 14 | AIG American International Group | +5% |
| 15 | NRG NRG Energy | +4% |
| 16 | KKR KKR & Co. | -1% |
| 17 | SWKS Skyworks Solutions | -3% |
| 18 | CCL Carnival Corporation | -4% |
| 19 | CNC Centene Corporation | -14% |
| 20 | WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | -17% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +52% |
| 2 | FANG Diamondback Energy | +51% |
| 3 | KMI Kinder Morgan | +39% |
| 4 | QCOM Qualcomm | +30% |
| 5 | ON ON Semiconductor | +30% |
| 6 | AKAM Akamai Technologies | +27% |
| 7 | EQT EQT Corporation | +25% |
| 8 | HPQ HP Inc. | +25% |
| 9 | MAR Marriott International | +23% |
| 10 | CMCSA Comcast | +22% |
| 11 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +15% |
| 12 | WDC Western Digital | +13% |
| 13 | MET MetLife | +12% |
| 14 | NRG NRG Energy | +4% |
| 15 | KKR KKR & Co. | -1% |
| 16 | SWKS Skyworks Solutions | -3% |
| 17 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | -3% |
| 18 | BX Blackstone Inc. | -8% |
| 19 | F Ford Motor Company | -14% |
| 20 | CNC Centene Corporation | -14% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TRGP Targa Resources | +107% |
| 2 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +52% |
| 3 | CSX CSX Corporation | +39% |
| 4 | PCAR Paccar | +35% |
| 5 | EQT EQT Corporation | +25% |
| 6 | HPQ HP Inc. | +25% |
| 7 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +24% |
| 8 | CMCSA Comcast | +22% |
| 9 | LNT Alliant Energy | +21% |
| 10 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +19% |
| 11 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +15% |
| 12 | WDC Western Digital | +13% |
| 13 | ETR Entergy | +8% |
| 14 | TJX TJX Companies | +6% |
| 15 | NRG NRG Energy | +4% |
| 16 | KKR KKR & Co. | -1% |
| 17 | HRL Hormel Foods | -12% |
| 18 | CNC Centene Corporation | -14% |
| 19 | WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | -17% |
| 20 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -19% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +16% | +10% |
| 2017 | +24% | +19% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +44% | +31% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2016 returned +16.4% on average over 12 months, vs 9.6% for the index. The best was HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) at +52%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2015 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.