These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2014 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPN Global Payments | +60% |
| 2 | SBUX Starbucks | +46% |
| 3 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +21% |
| 4 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +18% |
| 5 | HII Huntington Ingalls Industries | +13% |
| 6 | DHR Danaher Corporation | +8% |
| 7 | CHD Church & Dwight | +8% |
| 8 | T AT&T | +2% |
| 9 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -2% |
| 10 | AFL Aflac | -2% |
| 11 | BRO Brown & Brown | -2% |
| 12 | BAX Baxter International | -4% |
| 13 | HAL Halliburton | -13% |
| 14 | FDX FedEx | -14% |
| 15 | PPG PPG Industries | -14% |
| 16 | SLB Schlumberger | -18% |
| 17 | ODFL Old Dominion | -24% |
| 18 | PNR Pentair | -25% |
| 19 | CSX CSX Corporation | -28% |
| 20 | PCAR Paccar | -30% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SBUX Starbucks | +46% |
| 2 | VLO Valero Energy | +43% |
| 3 | KR Kroger | +30% |
| 4 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +30% |
| 5 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +21% |
| 6 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +18% |
| 7 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +15% |
| 8 | ROST Ross Stores | +14% |
| 9 | DHR Danaher Corporation | +8% |
| 10 | CHD Church & Dwight | +8% |
| 11 | TJX TJX Companies | +3% |
| 12 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +3% |
| 13 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -2% |
| 14 | BAX Baxter International | -4% |
| 15 | HAL Halliburton | -13% |
| 16 | PPG PPG Industries | -14% |
| 17 | DOV Dover Corporation | -14% |
| 18 | EXC Exelon | -25% |
| 19 | PNR Pentair | -25% |
| 20 | CSX CSX Corporation | -28% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPN Global Payments | +60% |
| 2 | SBUX Starbucks | +46% |
| 3 | KR Kroger | +30% |
| 4 | NKE Nike, Inc. | +30% |
| 5 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +21% |
| 6 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +18% |
| 7 | EBAY eBay Inc. | +16% |
| 8 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +15% |
| 9 | CHD Church & Dwight | +8% |
| 10 | TJX TJX Companies | +3% |
| 11 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +3% |
| 12 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | -1% |
| 13 | IDXX Idexx Laboratories | -2% |
| 14 | AFL Aflac | -2% |
| 15 | BRO Brown & Brown | -2% |
| 16 | PPG PPG Industries | -14% |
| 17 | WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | -23% |
| 18 | ODFL Old Dominion | -24% |
| 19 | CSX CSX Corporation | -28% |
| 20 | HPQ HP Inc. | -35% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | +6% | -1% |
| 2016 | +16% | +10% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +23% | +9% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2015 returned +5.7% on average over 12 months, vs -0.8% for the index. The best was SBUX (Starbucks) at +46%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2014 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.