These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2024 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | WDC Western Digital | +282% |
| 2 | MU Micron Technology | +239% |
| 3 | APP AppLovin | +108% |
| 4 | GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | +65% |
| 5 | FSLR First Solar | +48% |
| 6 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | +39% |
| 7 | NVDA Nvidia | +39% |
| 8 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +37% |
| 9 | UBER Uber | +36% |
| 10 | URI United Rentals | +15% |
| 11 | LYV Live Nation Entertainment | +10% |
| 12 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +9% |
| 13 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +1% |
| 14 | FTV Fortive | -2% |
| 15 | DDOG Datadog | -5% |
| 16 | NWSA News Corp (Class A) | -5% |
| 17 | COIN Coinbase | -9% |
| 18 | CMCSA Comcast | -20% |
| 19 | BLDR Builders FirstSource | -28% |
| 20 | PYPL PayPal | -32% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | WDC Western Digital | +282% |
| 2 | NEM Newmont | +168% |
| 3 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +77% |
| 4 | ALB Albemarle Corporation | +64% |
| 5 | MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | +53% |
| 6 | FSLR First Solar | +48% |
| 7 | HAS Hasbro | +47% |
| 8 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +37% |
| 9 | UBER Uber | +36% |
| 10 | ETR Entergy | +22% |
| 11 | BIIB Biogen | +15% |
| 12 | FAST Fastenal | +12% |
| 13 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +11% |
| 14 | REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | +8% |
| 15 | FDX FedEx | +3% |
| 16 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +1% |
| 17 | SLB Schlumberger | +0% |
| 18 | FTV Fortive | -2% |
| 19 | BLDR Builders FirstSource | -28% |
| 20 | MRNA Moderna | -29% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | WDC Western Digital | +282% |
| 2 | MU Micron Technology | +239% |
| 3 | NEM Newmont | +168% |
| 4 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +77% |
| 5 | CVS CVS Health | +77% |
| 6 | FSLR First Solar | +48% |
| 7 | HAS Hasbro | +47% |
| 8 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +37% |
| 9 | UBER Uber | +36% |
| 10 | APTV Aptiv | +26% |
| 11 | ETR Entergy | +22% |
| 12 | BIIB Biogen | +15% |
| 13 | DVN Devon Energy | +12% |
| 14 | FAST Fastenal | +12% |
| 15 | REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | +8% |
| 16 | PHM PulteGroup | +8% |
| 17 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +1% |
| 18 | SLB Schlumberger | +0% |
| 19 | CMCSA Comcast | -20% |
| 20 | MRNA Moderna | -29% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +41% | +16% |
| 2026 | +17% | +9% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +65% | +26% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2025 returned +41.3% on average over 12 months, vs 16.4% for the index. The best was WDC (Western Digital) at +282%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2024 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.