These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2023 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIEN Ciena | +88% |
| 2 | TPR Tapestry, Inc. | +78% |
| 3 | TTD Trade Desk (The) | +63% |
| 4 | GM General Motors | +48% |
| 5 | AMZN Amazon | +44% |
| 6 | APH Amphenol | +40% |
| 7 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +34% |
| 8 | NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings | +28% |
| 9 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +23% |
| 10 | MSFT Microsoft | +12% |
| 11 | FDX FedEx | +11% |
| 12 | INCY Incyte | +10% |
| 13 | FANG Diamondback Energy | +6% |
| 14 | EFX Equifax | +3% |
| 15 | DPZ Domino's | +2% |
| 16 | MCD McDonald's | -2% |
| 17 | WYNN Wynn Resorts | -5% |
| 18 | MGM MGM Resorts | -22% |
| 19 | SLB Schlumberger | -26% |
| 20 | MRNA Moderna | -58% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | APP AppLovin | +713% |
| 2 | UAL United Airlines Holdings | +135% |
| 3 | WMT Walmart | +72% |
| 4 | GE GE Aerospace | +64% |
| 5 | ETR Entergy | +50% |
| 6 | C Citigroup | +37% |
| 7 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +34% |
| 8 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +23% |
| 9 | J Jacobs Solutions | +23% |
| 10 | FDX FedEx | +11% |
| 11 | INCY Incyte | +10% |
| 12 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | +4% |
| 13 | FTV Fortive | +2% |
| 14 | BDX Becton Dickinson | -7% |
| 15 | ODFL Old Dominion | -13% |
| 16 | HAL Halliburton | -25% |
| 17 | SLB Schlumberger | -26% |
| 18 | APTV Aptiv | -33% |
| 19 | APA APA Corporation | -36% |
| 20 | MRNA Moderna | -58% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | UAL United Airlines Holdings | +135% |
| 2 | MRVL Marvell Technology | +83% |
| 3 | WMT Walmart | +72% |
| 4 | DAL Delta Air Lines | +50% |
| 5 | ETR Entergy | +50% |
| 6 | GM General Motors | +48% |
| 7 | APH Amphenol | +40% |
| 8 | PYPL PayPal | +39% |
| 9 | C Citigroup | +37% |
| 10 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +34% |
| 11 | PANW Palo Alto Networks | +23% |
| 12 | FAST Fastenal | +11% |
| 13 | BMY Bristol Myers Squibb | +10% |
| 14 | MU Micron Technology | -1% |
| 15 | WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | -7% |
| 16 | PFE Pfizer | -8% |
| 17 | ODFL Old Dominion | -13% |
| 18 | APTV Aptiv | -33% |
| 19 | ALB Albemarle Corporation | -40% |
| 20 | MRNA Moderna | -58% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +49% | +23% |
| 2025 | +41% | +16% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +110% | +43% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2024 returned +49.0% on average over 12 months, vs 23.3% for the index. The best was APP (AppLovin) at +713%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2023 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.