These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2021 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | +32% |
| 2 | TMUS T-Mobile US | +21% |
| 3 | PCAR Paccar | +12% |
| 4 | T AT&T | -1% |
| 5 | V Visa Inc. | -4% |
| 6 | TPR Tapestry, Inc. | -6% |
| 7 | ANET Arista Networks | -16% |
| 8 | GPN Global Payments | -26% |
| 9 | CMCSA Comcast | -30% |
| 10 | WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | -32% |
| 11 | FDX FedEx | -33% |
| 12 | ADBE Adobe Inc. | -41% |
| 13 | UBER Uber | -41% |
| 14 | WDC Western Digital | -52% |
| 15 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | -54% |
| 16 | MRVL Marvell Technology | -58% |
| 17 | PYPL PayPal | -62% |
| 18 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -65% |
| 19 | DASH DoorDash | -67% |
| 20 | COIN Coinbase | -86% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | +32% |
| 2 | SRE Sempra | +17% |
| 3 | PCAR Paccar | +12% |
| 4 | MNST Monster Beverage | +6% |
| 5 | EXC Exelon | +5% |
| 6 | T AT&T | -1% |
| 7 | WMT Walmart | -2% |
| 8 | GE GE Aerospace | -11% |
| 9 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | -12% |
| 10 | FTV Fortive | -16% |
| 11 | ODFL Old Dominion | -21% |
| 12 | MRNA Moderna | -29% |
| 13 | WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | -32% |
| 14 | UBER Uber | -41% |
| 15 | CRWD CrowdStrike | -49% |
| 16 | WDC Western Digital | -52% |
| 17 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | -54% |
| 18 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -65% |
| 19 | DASH DoorDash | -67% |
| 20 | COIN Coinbase | -86% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | OXY Occidental Petroleum | +117% |
| 2 | WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | +32% |
| 3 | SRE Sempra | +17% |
| 4 | BIIB Biogen | +15% |
| 5 | MNST Monster Beverage | +6% |
| 6 | WMT Walmart | -2% |
| 7 | GE GE Aerospace | -11% |
| 8 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | -12% |
| 9 | DXCM Dexcom | -16% |
| 10 | ANET Arista Networks | -16% |
| 11 | ODFL Old Dominion | -21% |
| 12 | WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | -32% |
| 13 | UBER Uber | -41% |
| 14 | NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings | -41% |
| 15 | CRWD CrowdStrike | -49% |
| 16 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | -54% |
| 17 | CCL Carnival Corporation | -60% |
| 18 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -65% |
| 19 | DASH DoorDash | -67% |
| 20 | COIN Coinbase | -86% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -23% | -19% |
| 2023 | +88% | +24% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +45% | +0% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2022 returned -23.3% on average over 12 months, vs -19.5% for the index. The best was WRB (W. R. Berkley Corporation) at +32%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2021 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.