These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2020 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ODFL Old Dominion | +84% |
| 2 | DHI D. R. Horton | +57% |
| 3 | DELL Dell Technologies | +51% |
| 4 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +50% |
| 5 | UNH UnitedHealth Group | +43% |
| 6 | EXC Exelon | +37% |
| 7 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +34% |
| 8 | VRT Vertiv | +34% |
| 9 | EBAY eBay Inc. | +32% |
| 10 | TGT Target Corporation | +31% |
| 11 | REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | +31% |
| 12 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +26% |
| 13 | CSX CSX Corporation | +24% |
| 14 | VST Vistra Corp. | +16% |
| 15 | LULU Lululemon Athletica | +13% |
| 16 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | +12% |
| 17 | SRE Sempra | +4% |
| 18 | BDX Becton Dickinson | +1% |
| 19 | WMT Walmart | +0% |
| 20 | CLX Clorox | -14% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ODFL Old Dominion | +84% |
| 2 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +57% |
| 3 | DELL Dell Technologies | +51% |
| 4 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +50% |
| 5 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | +44% |
| 6 | EXC Exelon | +37% |
| 7 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +32% |
| 8 | REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | +31% |
| 9 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +26% |
| 10 | GILD Gilead Sciences | +25% |
| 11 | CSX CSX Corporation | +24% |
| 12 | SRE Sempra | +4% |
| 13 | MNST Monster Beverage | +4% |
| 14 | PCAR Paccar | +2% |
| 15 | BDX Becton Dickinson | +1% |
| 16 | WMT Walmart | +0% |
| 17 | FDX FedEx | 0% |
| 18 | BIIB Biogen | -2% |
| 19 | CRWD CrowdStrike | -3% |
| 20 | BA Boeing | -6% |
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRNA Moderna | +143% |
| 2 | ODFL Old Dominion | +84% |
| 3 | NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | +58% |
| 4 | RJF Raymond James Financial | +57% |
| 5 | DELL Dell Technologies | +51% |
| 6 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +50% |
| 7 | SHW Sherwin-Williams | +44% |
| 8 | GM General Motors | +41% |
| 9 | EXC Exelon | +37% |
| 10 | ISRG Intuitive Surgical | +32% |
| 11 | MCHP Microchip Technology | +26% |
| 12 | CSX CSX Corporation | +24% |
| 13 | VST Vistra Corp. | +16% |
| 14 | SRE Sempra | +4% |
| 15 | MNST Monster Beverage | +4% |
| 16 | PCAR Paccar | +2% |
| 17 | BDX Becton Dickinson | +1% |
| 18 | WMT Walmart | +0% |
| 19 | FDX FedEx | 0% |
| 20 | CRWD CrowdStrike | -3% |
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +23% | +27% |
| 2022 | -23% | -19% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | -5% | +3% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2021 returned +23.0% on average over 12 months, vs 27.0% for the index. The best was ODFL (Old Dominion) at +84%. See the full list above.
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2020 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.