Best month or time to invest in the stock market?

All 12 months ranked · JPI Fair (balanced) method on the S&P 500 · 2015-2024 backtest

In short — over 2015-2024, applying the JPI Fair method to the S&P 500, the best entry month was November (+21.6%/yr), the worst July (+4.7%/yr). On a risk-adjusted basis, December leads (steadiest). But the gap rests on just 10 years — a tendency, not a rule: what matters most is time in the market, not the entry month.

Every year since 2015 we simulate buying at the start of each month and holding 12 months, using the selected method's stock selection. Below is the average by start month — click a month for the year-by-year detail.

Method:

# ↕	Month ↕	Return / yr i ▼	Ratio i ↕	$1,000 becomes (10y) i ↕	S&P 500 comparison i ↕
1	November	+21.6%	0.85	$7,046	+12.6%
2	October	+19.3%	0.74	$5,864	+13.3%
3	December	+17.3%	1.53	$4,946	+12.6%
4	January	+15.8%	1.07	$4,341	+11.1%
5	February	+14.5%	0.9	$3,865	+11.7%
6	September	+12.7%	0.54	$3,294	+12.6%
7	May	+12.6%	0.36	$3,278	+10.3%
8	June	+12.2%	0.34	$3,160	+10.8%
9	April	+11.7%	0.21	$3,033	+10.5%
10	August	+10.2%	0.42	$2,631	+11.6%
11	March	+7.4%	0.35	$2,044	+10.9%
12	July	+4.7%	0.14	$1,580	+11.6%

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# ↕	Month ↕	Return / yr i ▼	Ratio i ↕	$1,000 becomes (10y) i ↕	S&P 500 comparison i ↕
1	November	+26%	1.07	$10,095	+12.6%
2	December	+22.5%	1.51	$7,611	+12.6%
3	October	+20.1%	0.83	$6,222	+13.3%
4	January	+18.8%	0.97	$5,584	+11.1%
5	September	+17.9%	0.88	$5,209	+12.6%
6	May	+15.8%	0.4	$4,352	+10.3%
7	February	+13.7%	0.65	$3,620	+11.7%
8	April	+13.2%	0.25	$3,452	+10.5%
9	March	+12.1%	0.53	$3,133	+10.9%
10	August	+10.3%	0.43	$2,663	+11.6%
11	July	+10.2%	0.36	$2,651	+11.6%
12	June	+10.1%	0.3	$2,618	+10.8%

# ↕	Month ↕	Return / yr i ▼	Ratio i ↕	$1,000 becomes (10y) i ↕	S&P 500 comparison i ↕
1	October	+13.3%	1	$3,472	+13.3%
2	September	+12.6%	1.11	$3,264	+12.6%
3	November	+12.6%	0.8	$3,280	+12.6%
4	December	+12.6%	1.12	$3,275	+12.6%
5	February	+11.7%	0.96	$3,017	+11.7%
6	July	+11.6%	0.91	$2,999	+11.6%
7	August	+11.6%	1.15	$3,004	+11.6%
8	January	+11.1%	0.72	$2,852	+11.1%
9	March	+10.9%	0.85	$2,823	+10.9%
10	June	+10.8%	0.9	$2,794	+10.8%
11	April	+10.5%	0.59	$2,708	+10.5%
12	May	+10.3%	0.78	$2,664	+10.3%

📖 How to read this table — method used: JPI Fair (the balanced formula — buy stocks where at least 2 analysts reliable on their sector are bullish, taking the median of their targets). Our recommended formula.

• Return / yr: average annual gain of that selection if you buy that month, over 2015-2024.
• Ratio: return ÷ volatility — higher means steadier results (S&P 500 ≈ 0.9).
• $1000 becomes (10y): what $1000 invested that month each year would become after 10 years (compounded).
• S&P 500 comparison: the average S&P 500 return over the same period. It is far more stable regardless of the month — so the entry month matters mostly with the JPI method, not if you just buy the index.

📅 Why does the ranking stop at 2024? It's the window common to all 12 months: we exclude cycles that haven't completed their 12-month hold, to compare every month on equal terms. Each month page, however, shows its year as soon as it's complete.

💡 What it really says: the year-end/year-start months (November on top) come out ahead, but over 10 years the gap mostly reflects where the big 2023 rebound falls. No month “guarantees” anything. The robust lesson: staying invested for the long run beats trying to pick the right month.

📅 Why can these numbers differ from the backtest? Here we compare the 12 months against each other, so we use the common window 2015-2024 — the one where every month has a completed 12-month hold. The detailed backtest uses each month's full history — so it can show slightly higher returns for some months.

📊 Interactive version (12 months, 3 universes, year by year) →

📅 All 12 months — January · February · March · April · May · June · July · August · September · October · November · December

FAQ

What is the best month to invest in stocks?

In our 2015-2024 backtest (JPI Fair method, S&P 500), November ranks first at +21.6%/yr on average, ahead of the other year-end/year-start months. But over 10 years the gap isn't a reliable rule: the entry month matters far less than time invested.

When is the best time to start investing?

The best time to start is as early as possible: time in the market matters far more than the entry month. November tops the ranking, but the gap between months is small over the long run — starting now and investing regularly (DCA) beats waiting for the “right” moment.

Is the January effect real?

The “January effect” holds some truth — January ranks near the top (4th) — but in our data it isn't #1: over 10 years, November comes first, with January close behind. These gaps mostly reflect a few big years (2023 rebound): a tendency, not a guarantee.

Should I wait for a specific month to invest?

No. Research is clear: time in the market beats timing the market. Waiting for the “right” month often costs return. Investing regularly (DCA) is more robust than betting on one month.

How is this ranking computed?

For each month we simulate buying at the start of the month and holding 12 months, repeated over 2015-2024 (10 full years common to all months), using the JPI Fair method selection on the S&P 500. We show the average annual return, the return/risk ratio and what $1000 becomes.

What is JPI Invest?

JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P SmallCap 600, replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.

🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 11 years, from cautious to aggressive
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⚠️ Educational analysis, not investment advice. Point-in-time backtest on recomputed Yahoo data, short sample. Past performance does not predict the future.