GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) stock: analyst price target and their real reliability

Live quote · data updated Aug 28, 2026

GEO Group, Inc. · Industrials · ref. ETF XLI · 48 calls · price $32.6

What the company does: The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

📈 GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) stock price

$32.6+58.3% over range

Aug 28, 25low $13.26 · high $32.77Aug 27, 26

📏 Click 2 points (left → right) to measure the change · click again to clear.

SellBuy

Buy

100% recommend buying · 2 analysts

📊 JPI status : GEO Group, Inc. has never appeared in a JPI ranking (Fair or Risk +) — our methods haven't picked it to date. See the selected stocks →

🎯 GEO price target & analyst consensus — price $32.60

The price target · all analysts combined (2 targets)

Highest target · 2 firms of 2$40+22.7%

Median target · of 2 targets$40+22.7%

Lowest target · 2 firms of 2$40+22.7%

Current price$32.6

⭐ What the most reliable analysts say · those who beat their sector, targets replayed on real prices

⭐ The most reliable of them, either direction: Northland Capital Markets — 60% of its targets hit on this sector (10 calls tested). It aims for $40 (+23 %), call made on June 27, 2026, maturing on June 27, 2027 (62 d ago).

The 1 reliable analyst $40+23 %

The 1 other firm $40+23 %

How to read it: the 1 reliable firms are not filtered by optimism — 1 aim above the price, 0 below, hence their $40 median. “The 1 others” are the firms that don't pass our reliability filter on this sector.

The consensus · 2 ratings (last 6 months)

Strong Buy00%

Buy2100%

Hold00%

Sell00%

Strong Sell00%

Go deeper on the analysts

🎯 GEO price target all

All 48 calls, one by one, with our verdict on each firm.

→ See all 48 targets, analyst by analyst

💡 The best analysts on GEO most reliable

Their real reliability on GEO, firm by firm: who was right, who was wrong.

→ See their reliability on GEO

All analysts (the consensus) · vs · the best (those who've been right)

💬 A question about GEO Group, Inc.? The JPI assistant answers using our backtest data.

🔎 Detailed analyses

📊 Returns & performance

✅ Historical analyst reliability on GEO

Hit rate measured on targets already matured (12 months), replayed against real prices. Click a header to sort.

Firm ↕	% right i ↕	Gain vs sector i ↕	Calls i ↕
Wedbush ↗	82%	+68.7%	17
Canaccord Genuity ↗	33%	+4.9%	3
Jones Trading	33%	-5.9%	9

📊 What $1,000 invested in GEO Group, Inc. would be worth › open the full page

In short — $1,000 invested in GEO Group, Inc. 10 years ago would be worth $1,545 today, i.e. +4%/yr on average. Best year: 2024 (+158%), worst: 2020 (-47%). Price performance, excluding dividends.

If I'd invested $1,000 in GEO Group, Inc.

Investment	Worth today	Gain
1 years ago	$1,064	+6%
3 years ago	$2,720	+172%
5 years ago	$3,361	+236%

→ See GEO Group, Inc.'s full return history + gain calculator

Return by year (GEO Group, Inc.)

Year	Return	$1,000 invested at year start
2026 (YTD)	+85%	$1,847 (+85%)
2025	-42%	$1,064 (+6%)
2024	+158%	$2,750 (+175%)

→ See GEO Group, Inc.'s full return history + gain calculator

⚠️ Past performance, not predictive nor advice. Prices in $, excluding dividends. Yahoo Finance data.

📰 Recent news on GEO Group, Inc.

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📋 All analyst calls on GEO

Jones Trading

Aug 6, 26

▲ Buy · 🎯$40

Price at call : $30.69 — upside +30%

Today : $32.6 — upside +23%

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 6, 27

Northland Capital Markets ↗

Jun 26, 26

▲ Outperform · 🎯$40

Price at call : $29.46 — upside +36%

Today : $32.6 — upside +23%

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Industry : 50% · -11.3% (10 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Jun 26, 27

Jones Trading

Mar 20, 26

▲ Buy · 🎯$33

Price at call : $17 — upside +94%

Today : $32.6 — upside +1%

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 20, 27

Jones Trading

Feb 13, 26

▲ Buy · 🎯$33

Price at call : $14.21 — upside +132%

Today : $32.6 — upside +1%

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 13, 27

Jones Trading

Nov 7, 25

▲ Buy · 🎯$37

Price at call : $14.98 — upside +147%

Today : $32.6 — upside +13%

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 7, 26

Jones Trading

Aug 7, 25

▲ Buy · 🎯$45

Price at call : $21.33 — upside +111%

Today : $32.6 — upside +38%

Expected +111% · Actual +44% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

+43.7%

stock +44% · XLI +22%

matured Aug 7, 26

Wedbush ↗

Jun 23, 25

▲ Outperform · 🎯$36

Price at call : $23.27 — upside +55%

Today : $32.6 — upside +10%

Expected +55% · Actual +26% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+26.3%

stock +26% · XLI +24%

matured Jun 23, 26

Jones Trading

May 8, 25

▲ Buy · 🎯$50

Price at call : $25.21 — upside +98%

Today : $32.6 — upside +53%

Expected +98% · Actual -15% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

-15.1%

stock -15% · XLI +29%

matured May 8, 26

See the other 40 calls, newest to oldest

Jones Trading

Mar 21, 25

▲ Buy · 🎯$55

Price at call : $28.23 — upside +95%

Today : $32.6 — upside +69%

Expected +95% · Actual -40% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

-39.8%

stock -40% · XLI +23%

matured Mar 21, 26

Jones Trading

Mar 3, 25

▲ Buy · 🎯$55

Price at call : $26.23 — upside +110%

Today : $32.6 — upside +69%

Expected +110% · Actual -43% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

-42.6%

stock -43% · XLI +31%

matured Mar 3, 26

Jones Trading

Feb 27, 25

▲ Buy · 🎯$55

Price at call : $27.34 — upside +101%

Today : $32.6 — upside +69%

Expected +101% · Actual -45% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

-45.0%

stock -45% · XLI +32%

matured Feb 27, 26

Jones Trading

Jan 15, 25

▲ Buy · 🎯$55

Price at call : $33.85 — upside +62%

Today : $32.6 — upside +69%

Expected +62% · Actual -48% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

-48.3%

stock -48% · XLI +23%

matured Jan 15, 26

Wedbush ↗

Dec 17, 24

▲ Outperform

Actual -40% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

-39.7%

stock -40% · XLI +13%

matured Dec 17, 25

Noble Capital Markets

Nov 11, 24

■ Market Perform neutral · not a buy

🎯 on GEO : no call matured yet · 📊 unranked overall

in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 11, 25

Jones Trading

Nov 9, 24

▲ Buy · 🎯$32

Price at call : $26.48 — upside +21%

Today : $32.6 — upside -2%

Expected +21% · Actual -43% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

-43.4%

stock -43% · XLI +8%

matured Nov 9, 25

Northland Capital Markets ↗

Nov 8, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$37

Price at call : $26.48 — upside +40%

Today : $32.6 — upside +13%

Expected +40% · Actual -43% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Industry : 50% · -11.3% (10 calls)

-43.4%

stock -43% · XLI +8%

matured Nov 8, 25

Wedbush ↗

Nov 8, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$30

Price at call : $26.48 — upside +13%

Today : $32.6 — upside -8%

Expected +13% · Actual -43% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

-43.4%

stock -43% · XLI +8%

matured Nov 8, 25

Wedbush ↗

Sep 19, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$17

Price at call : $12.49 — upside +36%

Today : $32.6 — upside -48%

Expected +36% · Actual +75% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+74.6%

stock +75% · XLI +14%

matured Sep 19, 25

Wedbush ↗

Aug 8, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$17

Price at call : $12.22 — upside +39%

Today : $32.6 — upside -48%

Expected +39% · Actual +66% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+65.7%

stock +66% · XLI +21%

matured Aug 8, 25

Jones Trading

Aug 8, 24

▲ Buy · 🎯$18.75

Price at call : $12.46 — upside +50%

Today : $32.6 — upside -42%

Expected +50% · Actual +71% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

+71.2%

stock +71% · XLI +21%

matured Aug 8, 25

Wedbush ↗

Aug 7, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$19

Price at call : $12.46 — upside +52%

Today : $32.6 — upside -42%

Expected +52% · Actual +71% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+71.2%

stock +71% · XLI +21%

matured Aug 7, 25

Jones Trading

Jul 11, 24

▲ Buy · 🎯$18.75

Price at call : $15.57 — upside +20%

Today : $32.6 — upside -42%

Expected +20% · Actual +67% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 33% (9 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.7% · -19.8% (14 calls)

+66.5%

stock +67% · XLI +22%

matured Jul 11, 25

Wedbush ↗

May 8, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$20

Price at call : $13.63 — upside +47%

Today : $32.6 — upside -39%

Expected +47% · Actual +85% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+85.0%

stock +85% · XLI +8%

matured May 8, 25

Wedbush ↗

Apr 8, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$22

Price at call : $15.92 — upside +38%

Today : $32.6 — upside -33%

Expected +38% · Actual +78% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+77.9%

stock +78% · XLI +1%

matured Apr 8, 25

Wedbush ↗

Mar 21, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$15

Price at call : $14.62 — upside +3%

Today : $32.6 — upside -54%

Expected +3% · Actual +99% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+99.2%

stock +99% · XLI +7%

matured Mar 21, 25

Wedbush ↗

Mar 13, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$15

Price at call : $12.3 — upside +22%

Today : $32.6 — upside -54%

Expected +22% · Actual +108% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+107.7%

stock +108% · XLI +5%

matured Mar 13, 25

Wedbush ↗

Feb 16, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$15

Price at call : $12.23 — upside +23%

Today : $32.6 — upside -54%

Expected +23% · Actual +124% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+124.0%

stock +124% · XLI +17%

matured Feb 15, 25

Wedbush ↗

Feb 15, 24

▲ Outperform · 🎯$14

Price at call : $11.79 — upside +19%

Today : $32.6 — upside -57%

Expected +19% · Actual +131% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+131.2%

stock +131% · XLI +16%

matured Feb 14, 25

Wedbush ↗

Nov 8, 23

▲ Outperform · 🎯$14

Price at call : $9.27 — upside +51%

Today : $32.6 — upside -57%

Expected +51% · Actual +164% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+163.5%

stock +164% · XLI +39%

matured Nov 7, 24

Wedbush ↗

Aug 10, 23

▲ Outperform · 🎯$12.5

Price at call : $7.4 — upside +69%

Today : $32.6 — upside -62%

Expected +69% · Actual +71% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+71.5%

stock +71% · XLI +14%

matured Aug 9, 24

Wedbush ↗

May 18, 23

▲ Outperform · 🎯$11

Price at call : $8.34 — upside +32%

Today : $32.6 — upside -66%

Expected +32% · Actual +61% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+60.9%

stock +61% · XLI +25%

matured May 17, 24

Wedbush ↗

Apr 26, 23

▲ Outperform · 🎯$9

Price at call : $7.28 — upside +24%

Today : $32.6 — upside -72%

Expected +24% · Actual +103% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

+103.2%

stock +103% · XLI +26%

matured Apr 25, 24

Wedbush ↗

Nov 29, 22

▲ Outperform · 🎯$14

Price at call : $11.89 — upside +18%

Today : $32.6 — upside -57%

Expected +18% · Actual -11% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

-11.0%

stock -11% · XLI +6%

matured Nov 29, 23

Wedbush ↗

Jun 8, 21

■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$7

Price at call : $6.36 — gap to target +10%

Today : $32.6 — gap to target -79%

🎯 on GEO : 82% (17 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 53.8% · +12.8% (52 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Jun 8, 22

JP Morgan ↗

Feb 15, 19

■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$26

Price at call : $22.55 — gap to target +15%

Today : $32.6 — gap to target -20%

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Industry : 50% · +7.3% (132 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 15, 20

Canaccord Genuity ↗

Aug 10, 17

▲ Buy · 🎯$31

Price at call : $26.86 — upside +15%

Today : $32.6 — upside -5%

Expected +15% · Actual -6% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (3 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.3% · -10.9% (51 calls)

-6.0%

stock -6% · XLI +10%

matured Aug 10, 18

JP Morgan ↗

Jul 14, 17

▲ Overweight · 🎯$35

Price at call : $30.63 — upside +14%

Today : $32.6 — upside +7%

Expected +14% · Actual -13% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Industry : 50% · +7.3% (132 calls)

-12.5%

stock -13% · XLI +6%

matured Jul 14, 18

Deutsche Bank ↗

Feb 22, 17

■ Hold neutral · not a buy · 🎯$31.3333

Price at call : $31.83 — gap to target -2%

Today : $32.6 — gap to target -4%

🎯 on GEO : no call matured yet · 📊 on Industry : 35.8% · -8.8% (106 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 22, 18

Canaccord Genuity ↗

Nov 11, 16

▲ Buy · 🎯$23.3333

Price at call : $20.76 — upside +12%

Today : $32.6 — upside -28%

Expected +12% · Actual +26% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes

🎯 on GEO : 33% (3 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.3% · -10.9% (51 calls)

+26.2%

stock +26% · XLI +16%

matured Nov 11, 17

Canaccord Genuity ↗

Jul 14, 15

▲ Buy · 🎯$28.6667

Price at call : $24.7 — upside +16%

Today : $32.6 — upside -12%

Expected +16% · Actual -6% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 33% (3 calls matureds) · 📊 on Industry : 35.3% · -10.9% (51 calls)

-5.6%

stock -6% · XLI +6%

matured Jul 13, 16

CRT Capital

Jan 29, 15

▲ Buy · 🎯$32

Price at call : $29.47 — upside +9%

Today : $32.6 — upside -2%

Expected +9% · Actual -33% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 unranked overall

-33.1%

stock -33% · XLI -10%

matured Jan 29, 16

MLV & Co.

Oct 21, 14

▲ Buy · 🎯$30.6667

Price at call : $25.24 — upside +22%

Today : $32.6 — upside -6%

Expected +22% · Actual -16% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 unranked overall

-16.3%

stock -16% · XLI +0%

matured Oct 21, 15

Barclays ↗

Apr 10, 13

▲ Overweight · 🎯$30

Price at call : $25.13 — upside +19%

Today : $32.6 — upside -8%

Expected +19% · Actual -15% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Industry : 48.8% · +4.8% (160 calls)

-14.6%

stock -15% · XLI +21%

matured Apr 10, 14

Dawson James

Mar 26, 13

▲ Buy · 🎯$27.3333

Price at call : $24.43 — upside +12%

Today : $32.6 — upside -16%

Expected +12% · Actual -13% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✗ No

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 unranked overall

-12.6%

stock -13% · XLI +24%

matured Mar 26, 14

Dawson James

Dec 3, 12

■ Market Perform neutral · not a buy

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 unranked overall

in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 3, 13

Barclays ↗

Nov 6, 12

■ Equal-Weight neutral · not a buy · 🎯$20

Price at call : $18.57 — gap to target +8%

Today : $32.6 — gap to target -39%

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Industry : 48.8% · +4.8% (160 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 6, 13

First Analysis

Nov 6, 12

■ Equal-Weight neutral · not a buy

🎯 on GEO : no call matured yet · 📊 unranked overall

in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 6, 13

Barclays ↗

Aug 9, 12

■ Equal-Weight neutral · not a buy · 🎯$18

Price at call : $16.95 — gap to target +6%

Today : $32.6 — gap to target -45%

🎯 on GEO : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Industry : 48.8% · +4.8% (160 calls)

in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 9, 13

Frequently asked questions

Should I buy GEO Group, Inc. stock?

This isn't buy advice. For GEO Group, Inc., the analyst consensus is "Buy", with an average price target of $40.00 (+23% vs the current price). What matters is their past reliability on this stock: the most reliable one is right 82% of the time (17 calls tracked on GEO Group, Inc.). We show the numbers — you decide.

Is it too late to buy GEO Group, Inc.? How high can it go?

The most bullish analyst target on GEO Group, Inc. is $40.00 (+23% above today's price); the average is $40.00. That's the upside they see. Check how reliable those analysts have actually been on GEO Group, Inc. on our site before trusting it.

Is GEO Group, Inc. still a good buy?

The most useful "opinion" isn't an opinion — it's a track record: 3 analysts have a real record on GEO Group, Inc., the best hitting 82% over 17 calls. Current consensus: "Buy". Make your call on data, not noise.

What has GEO Group, Inc.'s past performance been?

Historical returns and a "how much if I had invested" calculator: GEO performance & returns.