Does McDonald's (MCD) stock go up or down depending on the month?
McDonald's month by month, year by year
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +3.1% | +8.3% | -8.9% | -5.5% | -4.9% | -3.2% | +0.1% | |||||
| 2025 | -0.4% | +6.8% | +1.3% | +2.3% | -1.8% | -6.9% | +2.7% | +4.5% | -3.1% | -1.8% | +4.5% | -2.0% |
| 2024 | -1.3% | -0.2% | -3.5% | -3.2% | -5.2% | -1.6% | +4.1% | +8.8% | +5.5% | -4.1% | +1.3% | -2.1% |
| 2023 | +1.5% | -1.3% | +5.9% | +5.8% | -3.6% | +4.7% | -1.7% | -4.1% | -6.3% | -0.5% | +7.5% | +5.2% |
| 2022 | -3.2% | -5.7% | +1.0% | +0.8% | +1.2% | -2.1% | +6.7% | -4.2% | -8.5% | +18.2% | +0.0% | -3.4% |
| 2021 | -3.1% | -0.8% | +8.7% | +5.3% | -0.9% | -1.2% | +5.1% | -2.2% | +1.5% | +1.8% | -0.4% | +9.6% |
| 2020 | +8.3% | -9.3% | -14.8% | +13.4% | -0.7% | -1.0% | +5.3% | +9.9% | +2.8% | -3.0% | +2.1% | -1.3% |
| 2019 | +0.7% | +2.8% | +3.3% | +4.0% | +0.4% | +4.7% | +1.5% | +3.4% | -1.5% | -8.4% | -1.1% | +1.6% |
| 2018 | -0.6% | -7.8% | -0.9% | +7.1% | -4.4% | -2.1% | +0.5% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +5.7% | +6.6% | -5.8% |
| 2017 | +0.7% | +4.1% | +1.5% | +8.0% | +7.8% | +1.5% | +1.3% | +3.1% | -2.1% | +6.5% | +3.0% | +0.1% |
| 2016 | +4.8% | -5.3% | +7.2% | +0.6% | -3.5% | -1.4% | -2.2% | -1.7% | -0.3% | -2.4% | +6.0% | +2.1% |
| 2015 | -1.3% | +7.0% | -1.5% | -0.9% | -0.6% | -0.9% | +5.0% | -4.8% | +3.7% | +13.9% | +1.7% | +3.5% |
| 2014 | -2.9% | +1.0% | +3.0% | +3.4% | +0.0% | -0.7% | -6.1% | -0.9% | +1.2% | -1.1% | +3.3% | -3.2% |
| 2013 | +0.6% | +4.0% | +2.5% | -5.5% | +2.5% | -0.9% | -3.8% | +2.0% | +0.3% | +0.9% | -0.3% | |
| Average | +0.5% | +0.0% | +0.5% | +3.1% | -1.5% | -0.5% | +1.5% | +0.8% | -0.2% | +1.9% | +2.7% | +0.3% |
| % of years up | 46% | 50% | 64% | 79% | 29% | 29% | 71% | 46% | 54% | 46% | 85% | 46% |
| Years observed | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
McDonald's month by month: the summary
Over 2013-2026, here's what McDonald's (MCD) stock did each month, on average: January +0.5% (up 46% of 13 years), February +0.0% (up 50% of 14 years), March +0.5% (up 64% of 14 years), April +3.1% (up 79% of 14 years), May -1.5% (up 29% of 14 years), June -0.5% (up 29% of 14 years), July +1.5% (up 71% of 14 years), August +0.8% (up 46% of 13 years), September -0.2% (up 54% of 13 years), October +1.9% (up 46% of 13 years), November +2.7% (up 85% of 13 years), December +0.3% (up 46% of 13 years). In other words, MCD historically rose in January, February, March, April, July, August, October, November, December, and fell in May, June, September.
Does McDonald's really go up in April?
Over 2013-2026, April is McDonald's's strongest month: +3.1% on average, positive in 11 of 14 years. At the other end, May shows -1.5%. But a monthly gap is often built on one or two extreme years — the table above shows it: look at the spread, not just the average. Seasonality only means something when it has a cause (selling season, earnings calendar, year-end tax effects); with no identified cause, it's probably noise.
Frequently asked questions
Does McDonald's stock go up or down in November?
Over 13 years, MCD rose +2.7% on average in November, finishing the month up 11 times out of 13 (85%). Median: +2.1%. It's one of its most consistent months. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does McDonald's stock go up or down in August?
Over 13 years, MCD rose +0.8% on average in August, finishing the month up 6 times out of 13 (46%). Median: -0.9%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does McDonald's stock go up or down in October?
Over 13 years, MCD rose +1.9% on average in October, finishing the month up 6 times out of 13 (46%). Median: -0.5%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does McDonald's stock go up or down in July?
Over 14 years, MCD rose +1.5% on average in July, finishing the month up 10 times out of 14 (71%). Median: +1.4%. It's one of its most consistent months. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does McDonald's stock go up or down in June?
Over 14 years, MCD fell -0.5% on average in June, finishing the month up 4 times out of 14 (29%). Median: -1.1%. It's one of its weakest months. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does McDonald's stock go up or down in January?
Over 13 years, MCD rose +0.5% on average in January, finishing the month up 6 times out of 13 (46%). Median: -0.4%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
What is the best month to buy McDonald's stock?
Historically, April: over the last 14 years, MCD gained +3.1% on average that month and finished up 79% of the time (14 years observed). May is the weakest month (-1.5%). This is not a prediction: 14 years is a small sample, and the past is under no obligation to repeat.
Do McDonald's's quarterly earnings move the stock?
May — when McDonald's reports quarterly earnings — has been its weakest month over 14 years (-1.5% on average, up 29% of years). Earnings are a known driver of moves. ⚠️ This is a past tendency over a short history, not a rule. Use it as context, never as a buy plan.
Why does McDonald's stock often rise in April?
April has averaged as its best month over 14 years (+3.1%, up 79% of years). No clearly established recurring seasonal driver explains this month — it's a statistical tendency over 14 years of history, not a prediction.
Why is McDonald's stock weaker in May?
May has averaged as its weakest month over 14 years (-1.5%, up only 29% of years). This month covers McDonald's's quarterly earnings release — a known driver of moves, and over this history it has tended to weigh on the stock.
Is there a best month to invest in the stock market in general?
There's no universal rule: every stock has its own seasonality. For MCD it's April (+3.1% on average over 14 years) — another stock will look completely different. The calendar effects people cite ("sell in May", the year-end rally) are market-wide averages, not laws: on MCD, November is the most consistent month (85% positive years). We also rank all 12 months for the whole market.
Does stock seasonality actually work?
Careful. A month that rose 14 times out of 14 can simply be chance: with 12 months and a dozen years, patterns appear naturally even in random data. Seasonality describes what happened; it doesn't explain why and predicts nothing. Treat it as context, never as a standalone buy signal.
What data is this table based on?
On MCD's real monthly closing prices from 2013 to 2026 (14 years), source Yahoo Finance. Each cell = the price change over that month. Price performance, excluding dividends. Incomplete months and quote gaps are excluded.