Does Alcoa (AA) stock go up or down depending on the month?
Alcoa month by month, year by year
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +6.9% | +9.3% | +6.8% | -3.8% | +21.7% | -32.8% | -13.2% | |||||
| 2025 | -6.5% | -5.9% | -8.3% | -19.6% | +9.1% | +10.2% | +1.6% | +7.4% | +2.2% | +11.9% | +13.5% | +27.3% |
| 2024 | -12.5% | -8.5% | +24.2% | +4.0% | +26.0% | -10.1% | -16.9% | -2.8% | +20.2% | +3.9% | +15.8% | -18.6% |
| 2023 | +14.9% | -6.3% | -13.0% | -12.7% | -14.6% | +7.0% | +6.7% | -16.9% | -3.4% | -11.8% | +4.8% | +26.6% |
| 2022 | -4.8% | +32.9% | +19.5% | -24.7% | -9.0% | -26.2% | +11.6% | -2.8% | -32.0% | +16.0% | +28.4% | -9.3% |
| 2021 | -21.9% | +36.4% | +32.3% | +12.8% | +8.3% | -7.1% | +9.0% | +10.5% | +10.3% | -6.1% | +1.3% | +28.0% |
| 2020 | -35.1% | -0.6% | -55.6% | +32.3% | +13.0% | +22.0% | +15.7% | +12.5% | -20.5% | +11.1% | +54.0% | +15.8% |
| 2019 | +11.7% | -0.6% | -4.5% | -5.3% | -20.6% | +10.5% | -3.9% | -20.3% | +11.9% | +3.6% | -2.1% | +5.7% |
| 2018 | -3.4% | -13.6% | -0.0% | +13.9% | -6.1% | -2.5% | -7.7% | +3.2% | -9.6% | -13.4% | -9.1% | -16.4% |
| 2017 | +29.8% | -5.1% | -0.5% | -1.9% | -2.3% | -0.9% | +11.5% | +20.5% | +6.2% | +2.5% | -13.1% | +29.8% |
| 2016 | -26.1% | +22.5% | +7.3% | +16.6% | -17.0% | +0.0% | +14.5% | -5.1% | +0.6% | -5.6% | +26.0% | -3.1% |
| 2015 | -0.9% | -5.5% | -12.6% | +3.9% | -6.9% | -10.8% | -11.5% | -4.3% | +2.2% | -7.5% | +4.8% | +5.5% |
| 2014 | +8.3% | +2.0% | +9.6% | +4.7% | +1.0% | +9.4% | +10.1% | +1.3% | -3.1% | +4.2% | +3.2% | -8.7% |
| 2013 | -3.6% | +0.0% | -0.2% | +0.0% | -8.0% | +1.6% | -3.1% | +5.5% | +14.2% | +3.6% | +10.6% | |
| Average | -3.1% | +3.8% | +0.4% | +1.4% | +0.2% | -2.8% | +2.1% | +0.0% | -0.7% | +1.8% | +10.1% | +7.2% |
| % of years up | 38% | 36% | 43% | 50% | 43% | 36% | 64% | 46% | 62% | 62% | 77% | 62% |
| Years observed | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Alcoa month by month: the summary
Over 2013-2026, here's what Alcoa (AA) stock did each month, on average: January -3.1% (up 38% of 13 years), February +3.8% (up 36% of 14 years), March +0.4% (up 43% of 14 years), April +1.4% (up 50% of 14 years), May +0.2% (up 43% of 14 years), June -2.8% (up 36% of 14 years), July +2.1% (up 64% of 14 years), August +0.0% (up 46% of 13 years), September -0.7% (up 62% of 13 years), October +1.8% (up 62% of 13 years), November +10.1% (up 77% of 13 years), December +7.2% (up 62% of 13 years). In other words, AA historically rose in February, March, April, May, July, August, October, November, December, and fell in January, June, September.
Does Alcoa really go up in November?
Over 2013-2026, November is Alcoa's strongest month: +10.1% on average, positive in 10 of 13 years. At the other end, January shows -3.1%. But a monthly gap is often built on one or two extreme years — the table above shows it: look at the spread, not just the average. Seasonality only means something when it has a cause (selling season, earnings calendar, year-end tax effects); with no identified cause, it's probably noise.
Frequently asked questions
Does Alcoa stock go up or down in August?
Over 13 years, AA rose +0.0% on average in August, finishing the month up 6 times out of 13 (46%). Median: -2.8%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Alcoa stock go up or down in December?
Over 13 years, AA rose +7.2% on average in December, finishing the month up 8 times out of 13 (62%). Median: +5.7%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Alcoa stock go up or down in February?
Over 14 years, AA rose +3.8% on average in February, finishing the month up 5 times out of 14 (36%). Median: -2.1%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Alcoa stock go up or down in June?
Over 14 years, AA fell -2.8% on average in June, finishing the month up 5 times out of 14 (36%). Median: -1.7%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Alcoa stock go up or down in July?
Over 14 years, AA rose +2.1% on average in July, finishing the month up 9 times out of 14 (64%). Median: +4.2%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Alcoa stock go up or down in October?
Over 13 years, AA rose +1.8% on average in October, finishing the month up 8 times out of 13 (62%). Median: +3.6%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
What is the best month to buy Alcoa stock?
Historically, November: over the last 14 years, AA gained +10.1% on average that month and finished up 77% of the time (13 years observed). January is the weakest month (-3.1%). This is not a prediction: 14 years is a small sample, and the past is under no obligation to repeat.
Why does Alcoa stock often rise in November?
November has averaged as its best month over 14 years (+10.1%, up 77% of years). No clearly established recurring seasonal driver explains this month — it's a statistical tendency over 14 years of history, not a prediction.
Is there a best month to invest in the stock market in general?
There's no universal rule: every stock has its own seasonality. For AA it's November (+10.1% on average over 14 years) — another stock will look completely different. The calendar effects people cite ("sell in May", the year-end rally) are market-wide averages, not laws: on AA, November is the most consistent month (77% positive years). We also rank all 12 months for the whole market.
Does stock seasonality actually work?
Careful. A month that rose 14 times out of 14 can simply be chance: with 12 months and a dozen years, patterns appear naturally even in random data. Seasonality describes what happened; it doesn't explain why and predicts nothing. Treat it as context, never as a standalone buy signal.
What data is this table based on?
On AA's real monthly closing prices from 2013 to 2026 (14 years), source Yahoo Finance. Each cell = the price change over that month. Price performance, excluding dividends. Incomplete months and quote gaps are excluded.