Should I buy Alcoa (AA) stock or is it too late?
⭐ The most reliable of them, either direction: BMO Capital — 60% of its targets hit on this sector (116 calls tested). It aims for $55 (+33 %), call made on July 18, 2026, maturing on July 18, 2027 (88 d ago).
Firm-by-firm track record on Alcoa
| Firm | % right | Gain vs sector | Calls | Aims for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Riley Securities | 70 % | +52.2 % | 10 | $80 +93% |
| JP Morgan | 42 % | +52.0 % | 12 | $50 +21% |
| Macquarie | 80 % | +49.4 % | 5 | $39 -6% |
| Deutsche Bank | 42 % | +48.3 % | 12 | $36 -13% |
| UBS | 56 % | +25.5 % | 9 | $68 +64% |
| Morgan Stanley | 41 % | +13.1 % | 34 | $50 +21% |
| Goldman Sachs | 55 % | +13.0 % | 11 | $46 +11% |
| Citigroup | 40 % | -2.2 % | 15 | $76 +83% |
✅ Reasons to believe
- Median price target $55, i.e. +33% from the current price ($41).
- The most reliable firm on AA, B. Riley Securities (70% hit rate, 10 scored calls), targets $80 (call made on July 7, 2026, maturing on July 7, 2027) (+93%) in its most recent call, and $96 (call made on April 7, 2026, maturing on April 7, 2027) (+131%) in the one coming due soonest.
⚠️ Reasons to hesitate
- The consensus is not unanimous: of 9 ratings, 3 are neutral and 1 is a sell.
- A 12-month target is not a guaranteed path: the price can fall in the meantime.
The analyst consensus on AA
Median target $55 (+33%) · 9 ratings · Hold consensus
⚠️ Information, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Analyst targets on a ~12-month horizon.
Frequently asked questions
Should you invest in Alcoa now?
We won't decide for you. The facts: 56% of analysts rate it a buy, median target $55 (+33%), and B. Riley Securities (most reliable on AA, 70%) targets $80. Weigh that against valuation. This is not personalized advice.
Is it too late to invest in Alcoa?
Not according to analysts: the median target ($55) is still +33% above the current price ($41) (most reliable on AA: B. Riley Securities, 70%). The real question isn't "too late" but the price-to-value gap and risk. Not advice.
Is Alcoa still worth investing in?
It depends on the gap between the price ($41) and its estimated value: analysts target $55 on median (+33%), with 56% buys (most reliable on AA: B. Riley Securities, 70%). Cross-check with their real reliability on AA and the cautions above. Information, not advice.
What's the main risk in buying AA?
The consensus is not unanimous: of 9 ratings, 3 are neutral and 1 is a sell.
→ Go deeper: the full Alcoa profile (consensus, analyst reliability, price target, performance).