Should I buy Arch Capital Group (ACGL) stock or is it too late?

Arch Capital Group · Financials · price $97

See the full Arch Capital Group (ACGL) profile

⭐ What the most reliable analysts say · those who beat their sector, targets replayed on real prices

⭐ The most reliable of them, either direction: Cantor Fitzgerald — 76% of its targets hit on this sector (21 calls tested). It aims for $105 (+8.4 %), call made on October 8, 2026, maturing on October 8, 2027 (6 d ago).

The 8 reliable analysts $106+9.4 %

The 5 other firms $110+14 %

How to read it: the 8 reliable firms are not filtered by optimism — 7 aim above the price, 1 below, hence their $106 median. “The 5 others” are the firms that don't pass our reliability filter on this sector.

Firm-by-firm track record on Arch Capital Group

Here the hit rate is measured <b>on this stock specifically</b> (matured targets replayed against real prices, minimum 5 calls tested) — the green block above measures reliability <b>across the whole sector</b>, which is the criterion behind JPI selections. “Aims for” = the firm's most recent target on this stock; “—” means it hasn't published one recently.

Firm	% right	Gain vs sector	Calls	Aims for
Barclays	95 %	+36.4 %	21	$106 +9%
RBC Capital	82 %	+22.2 %	17	$120 +24%
UBS	84 %	+20.7 %	19	$120 +24%
Morgan Stanley	100 %	+18.9 %	8	$100 +3%
Wells Fargo	72 %	+18.1 %	29	$107 +10%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	70 %	+4.4 %	10	$95 -2%
B of A Securities	0 %	-11.4 %	7	$134 +38%
Jefferies	88 %	+37.4 %	8	—

In short — Should you invest in Arch Capital Group? Is it too late, still worth it? Analysts are split (46% buy, median target $107, i.e. +10%), and the most reliable on ACGL targets even higher. But it pays virtually no dividend. We give you both sides, with the numbers — not advice.

✅ Reasons to believe

Median price target $107, i.e. +10% from the current price ($97).
The most reliable firm on ACGL, Morgan Stanley (100% hit rate, 8 scored calls), targets $100 (call made on October 13, 2026, maturing on October 13, 2027) (+3%) in its most recent call, and $110 (call made on November 17, 2025, maturing on November 17, 2026) (+14%) in the one coming due soonest.
Reasonable valuation (P/E ~8) relative to its sector.

⚠️ Reasons to hesitate

The consensus is not unanimous: of 13 ratings, 7 are neutral.
A 12-month target is not a guaranteed path: the price can fall in the meantime.
No dividend: your return depends only on price appreciation.

The analyst consensus on ACGL

Median target $107 (+10%) · 13 ratings · Hold consensus

Strong Buy00%

Buy646%

Hold754%

Sell00%

Strong Sell00%

⚠️ Information, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Analyst targets on a ~12-month horizon.

Frequently asked questions

Should you invest in Arch Capital Group now?

We won't decide for you. The facts: 46% of analysts rate it a buy, median target $107 (+10%), and Morgan Stanley (most reliable on ACGL, 100%) targets $100. Weigh that against valuation (P/E ~8). This is not personalized advice.

Is it too late to invest in Arch Capital Group?

Not according to analysts: the median target ($107) is still +10% above the current price ($97) (most reliable on ACGL: Morgan Stanley, 100%). The real question isn't "too late" but the price-to-value gap and risk. Not advice.

Is Arch Capital Group still worth investing in?

It depends on the gap between the price ($97) and its estimated value: analysts target $107 on median (+10%), with 46% buys (most reliable on ACGL: Morgan Stanley, 100%). Cross-check with their real reliability on ACGL and the cautions above. Information, not advice.

What's the main risk in buying ACGL?

The consensus is not unanimous: of 13 ratings, 7 are neutral.

→ Go deeper: the full Arch Capital Group profile (consensus, analyst reliability, price target, performance).