Should I buy Arch Capital Group (ACGL) stock or is it too late?

Arch Capital Group · Financials · price $99

See the full Arch Capital Group (ACGL) profile

⭐ What the most reliable analysts say · those who beat their sector, targets replayed on real prices

⭐ The most reliable of them, either direction: RBC Capital — 74% of its targets hit on this sector (476 calls tested). It aims for $120 (+22 %), call made on July 31, 2026, maturing on July 31, 2027 (28 d ago).

The 7 reliable analysts $117+19 %

The 3 other firms $106+7.3 %

How to read it: the 7 reliable firms are not filtered by optimism — 7 aim above the price, 0 below, hence their $117 median. “The 3 others” are the firms that don't pass our reliability filter on this sector.

Firm-by-firm track record on Arch Capital Group

Here the hit rate is measured <b>on this stock specifically</b> (matured targets replayed against real prices, minimum 5 calls tested) — the green block above measures reliability <b>across the whole sector</b>, which is the criterion behind JPI selections. “Aims for” = the firm's most recent target on this stock; “—” means it hasn't published one recently.

Firm	% right	Gain vs sector	Calls	Aims for
Jefferies	88 %	+37.4 %	8	$100 +1%
Barclays	95 %	+36.4 %	21	$106 +7%
RBC Capital	82 %	+22.2 %	17	$120 +22%
UBS	84 %	+20.7 %	19	$120 +22%
Morgan Stanley	100 %	+18.9 %	8	$110 +11%
Wells Fargo	71 %	+18.6 %	28	$117 +18%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	70 %	+4.4 %	10	$99 +0%
JMP Securities	85 %	+20.0 %	20	—

In short — Should you invest in Arch Capital Group? Is it too late, still worth it? Analysts are split (50% buy, median target $114, i.e. +15%), and the most reliable on ACGL targets even higher. But it pays virtually no dividend. We give you both sides, with the numbers — not advice.

✅ Reasons to believe

Median price target $114, i.e. +15% from the current price ($99).
The most reliable firm on ACGL, Morgan Stanley (100% hit rate, 8 scored calls), targets $110 (call made on July 6, 2026, maturing on July 6, 2027) (+11%) in its most recent call, and $110 (call made on November 17, 2025, maturing on November 17, 2026) (+11%) in the one coming due soonest.
Reasonable valuation (P/E ~8) relative to its sector.

⚠️ Reasons to hesitate

The consensus is not unanimous: of 10 ratings, 5 are neutral.
A 12-month target is not a guaranteed path: the price can fall in the meantime.
No dividend: your return depends only on price appreciation.

The analyst consensus on ACGL

Median target $114 (+15%) · 10 ratings · Buy consensus

Strong Buy00%

Buy550%

Hold550%

Sell00%

Strong Sell00%

⚠️ Information, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Analyst targets on a ~12-month horizon.

Frequently asked questions

Should you invest in Arch Capital Group now?

We won't decide for you. The facts: 50% of analysts rate it a buy, median target $114 (+15%), and Morgan Stanley (most reliable on ACGL, 100%) targets $110. Weigh that against valuation (P/E ~8). This is not personalized advice.

Is it too late to invest in Arch Capital Group?

Not according to analysts: the median target ($114) is still +15% above the current price ($99) (most reliable on ACGL: Morgan Stanley, 100%). The real question isn't "too late" but the price-to-value gap and risk. Not advice.

Is Arch Capital Group still worth investing in?

It depends on the gap between the price ($99) and its estimated value: analysts target $114 on median (+15%), with 50% buys (most reliable on ACGL: Morgan Stanley, 100%). Cross-check with their real reliability on ACGL and the cautions above. Information, not advice.

What's the main risk in buying ACGL?

The consensus is not unanimous: of 10 ratings, 5 are neutral.

→ Go deeper: the full Arch Capital Group profile (consensus, analyst reliability, price target, performance).