Does Toll Brothers (TOL) stock go up or down depending on the month?
Toll Brothers month by month, year by year
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +6.9% | +8.8% | -13.2% | +4.2% | -2.5% | +18.9% | -11.4% | |||||
| 2025 | +7.8% | -17.8% | -5.4% | -4.5% | +3.4% | +9.5% | +3.7% | +17.4% | -0.6% | -2.3% | +3.6% | -3.3% |
| 2024 | -3.3% | +15.4% | +12.8% | -7.9% | +2.1% | -5.3% | +23.9% | +1.0% | +7.2% | -5.2% | +12.8% | -23.7% |
| 2023 | +19.2% | +0.8% | +0.2% | +6.5% | +5.9% | +16.8% | +1.6% | +2.0% | -9.7% | -4.4% | +21.5% | +19.7% |
| 2022 | -18.5% | -8.0% | -13.3% | -1.4% | +8.8% | -11.6% | +10.3% | -11.0% | -4.1% | +2.6% | +11.2% | +4.2% |
| 2021 | +17.6% | +4.5% | +6.2% | +10.5% | +4.1% | -11.4% | +2.5% | +8.1% | -13.7% | +8.8% | +5.5% | +14.1% |
| 2020 | +12.3% | -16.5% | -48.0% | +24.8% | +34.5% | +0.9% | +17.2% | +10.5% | +15.3% | -13.1% | +12.0% | -8.2% |
| 2019 | +12.2% | -3.6% | +1.7% | +5.2% | -8.7% | +5.3% | -1.8% | +0.6% | +13.4% | -3.1% | +1.0% | -1.6% |
| 2018 | -3.0% | -5.9% | -1.3% | -2.5% | -6.3% | -6.3% | -4.7% | +2.8% | -8.8% | +1.9% | -2.0% | -0.1% |
| 2017 | +1.2% | +8.9% | +5.8% | -0.3% | +2.6% | +7.0% | -2.3% | +1.0% | +6.4% | +11.0% | +9.3% | -4.6% |
| 2016 | -17.1% | -0.6% | +7.5% | -7.5% | +6.8% | -7.7% | +4.1% | +11.0% | -4.0% | -8.1% | +8.1% | +4.5% |
| 2015 | +1.0% | +10.7% | +2.7% | -9.7% | +1.8% | +5.6% | +1.9% | -5.0% | -7.4% | +5.1% | +3.4% | -10.4% |
| 2014 | -0.7% | +6.1% | -8.0% | -4.6% | +5.8% | +1.9% | -11.4% | +8.9% | -12.4% | +2.5% | +9.5% | -2.1% |
| 2013 | -8.9% | +0.4% | +0.2% | -0.4% | -4.5% | +0.7% | -6.9% | +5.9% | +1.4% | +3.7% | +8.5% | |
| Average | +2.7% | -0.4% | -3.7% | +0.9% | +4.1% | +1.4% | +2.5% | +3.1% | -1.0% | -0.2% | +7.7% | -0.2% |
| % of years up | 62% | 50% | 57% | 43% | 71% | 57% | 64% | 77% | 38% | 54% | 92% | 38% |
| Years observed | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Toll Brothers month by month: the summary
Over 2013-2026, here's what Toll Brothers (TOL) stock did each month, on average: January +2.7% (up 62% of 13 years), February -0.4% (up 50% of 14 years), March -3.7% (up 57% of 14 years), April +0.9% (up 43% of 14 years), May +4.1% (up 71% of 14 years), June +1.4% (up 57% of 14 years), July +2.5% (up 64% of 14 years), August +3.1% (up 77% of 13 years), September -1.0% (up 38% of 13 years), October -0.2% (up 54% of 13 years), November +7.7% (up 92% of 13 years), December -0.2% (up 38% of 13 years). In other words, TOL historically rose in January, April, May, June, July, August, November, and fell in February, March, September, October, December.
Does Toll Brothers really go up in November?
Over 2013-2026, November is Toll Brothers's strongest month: +7.7% on average, positive in 12 of 13 years. At the other end, March shows -3.7%. But a monthly gap is often built on one or two extreme years — the table above shows it: look at the spread, not just the average. Seasonality only means something when it has a cause (selling season, earnings calendar, year-end tax effects); with no identified cause, it's probably noise.
Frequently asked questions
Does Toll Brothers stock go up or down in August?
Over 13 years, TOL rose +3.1% on average in August, finishing the month up 10 times out of 13 (77%). Median: +2.0%. It's one of its most consistent months. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Toll Brothers stock go up or down in May?
Over 14 years, TOL rose +4.1% on average in May, finishing the month up 10 times out of 14 (71%). Median: +3.0%. It's one of its most consistent months. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Toll Brothers stock go up or down in January?
Over 13 years, TOL rose +2.7% on average in January, finishing the month up 8 times out of 13 (62%). Median: +1.2%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Toll Brothers stock go up or down in July?
Over 14 years, TOL rose +2.5% on average in July, finishing the month up 9 times out of 14 (64%). Median: +1.8%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Toll Brothers stock go up or down in June?
Over 14 years, TOL rose +1.4% on average in June, finishing the month up 8 times out of 14 (57%). Median: +1.4%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Toll Brothers stock go up or down in September?
Over 13 years, TOL fell -1.0% on average in September, finishing the month up 5 times out of 13 (38%). Median: -4.0%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
What is the best month to buy Toll Brothers stock?
Historically, November: over the last 14 years, TOL gained +7.7% on average that month and finished up 92% of the time (13 years observed). March is the weakest month (-3.7%). This is not a prediction: 14 years is a small sample, and the past is under no obligation to repeat.
Do Toll Brothers's quarterly earnings move the stock?
November — when Toll Brothers reports quarterly earnings — has been its best month over 14 years (+7.7% on average, up 92% of years). Earnings are a known driver of moves. ⚠️ This is a past tendency over a short history, not a rule. Use it as context, never as a buy plan.
Why does Toll Brothers stock often rise in November?
November has averaged as its best month over 14 years (+7.7%, up 92% of years). This month covers Toll Brothers's quarterly earnings release — a known driver of moves, and over this history it has tended to push the stock higher.
Why is Toll Brothers stock weaker in March?
March has averaged as its weakest month over 14 years (-3.7%, up only 57% of years). No clearly established recurring seasonal driver explains this month — it's a statistical tendency over 14 years of history, not a prediction.
Is there a best month to invest in the stock market in general?
There's no universal rule: every stock has its own seasonality. For TOL it's November (+7.7% on average over 14 years) — another stock will look completely different. The calendar effects people cite ("sell in May", the year-end rally) are market-wide averages, not laws: on TOL, November is the most consistent month (92% positive years). We also rank all 12 months for the whole market.
Does stock seasonality actually work?
Careful. A month that rose 14 times out of 14 can simply be chance: with 12 months and a dozen years, patterns appear naturally even in random data. Seasonality describes what happened; it doesn't explain why and predicts nothing. Treat it as context, never as a standalone buy signal.
What data is this table based on?
On TOL's real monthly closing prices from 2013 to 2026 (14 years), source Yahoo Finance. Each cell = the price change over that month. Price performance, excluding dividends. Incomplete months and quote gaps are excluded.