Should I buy Toll Brothers (TOL) stock or is it too late?

Toll Brothers · Consumer Discretionary · price $133

See the full Toll Brothers (TOL) profile

⭐ What the most reliable analysts say · those who beat their sector, targets replayed on real prices

⭐ The most reliable of them, either direction: UBS — 61% of its targets hit on this sector (220 calls tested). It aims for $195 (+47 %), call made on August 21, 2026, maturing on August 21, 2027 (54 d ago).

The 1 reliable analyst $195+47 %

The 8 other firms $170+28 %

How to read it: the 1 reliable firms are not filtered by optimism — 1 aim above the price, 0 below, hence their $195 median. “The 8 others” are the firms that don't pass our reliability filter on this sector.

Firm-by-firm track record on Toll Brothers

Here the hit rate is measured <b>on this stock specifically</b> (matured targets replayed against real prices, minimum 5 calls tested) — the green block above measures reliability <b>across the whole sector</b>, which is the criterion behind JPI selections. “Aims for” = the firm's most recent target on this stock; “—” means it hasn't published one recently.

Firm	% right	Gain vs sector	Calls	Aims for
UBS	70 %	+37.4 %	10	$195 +47%
Oppenheimer	64 %	+34.2 %	14	$180 +36%
Raymond James	76 %	+28.4 %	21	$160 +21%
Evercore ISI Group	80 %	+25.5 %	5	$184 +39%
Wells Fargo	63 %	+21.9 %	19	$185 +39%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	43 %	+20.6 %	7	$170 +28%
RBC Capital	71 %	+19.2 %	14	$158 +19%
Wedbush	71 %	+16.5 %	7	$165 +24%

In short — Should you invest in Toll Brothers? Is it too late, still worth it? Analysts are overwhelmingly positive (89% buy, median target $170, i.e. +28%), and the most reliable on TOL targets even higher. But the stock is volatile. We give you both sides, with the numbers — not advice.

✅ Reasons to believe

89% of analysts rate it a buy (Buy consensus, 9 ratings) — a sign of market conviction.
Median price target $170, i.e. +28% from the current price ($133).
The most reliable firm on TOL, Evercore ISI Group (80% hit rate, 5 scored calls), targets $184 (call made on September 25, 2026, maturing on September 25, 2027) (+39%) in its most recent call, and $174 (call made on February 19, 2026, maturing on February 19, 2027) (+31%) in the one coming due soonest.

⚠️ Reasons to hesitate

The consensus is not unanimous: of 9 ratings, 1 is a sell.
A 12-month target is not a guaranteed path: the price can fall in the meantime.
Volatile stock: sharp swings — including steep drops — are part of its profile.

The analyst consensus on TOL

Median target $170 (+28%) · 9 ratings · Buy consensus

Strong Buy00%

Buy889%

Hold00%

Sell111%

Strong Sell00%

⚠️ Information, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Analyst targets on a ~12-month horizon.

Frequently asked questions

Should you invest in Toll Brothers now?

We won't decide for you. The facts: 89% of analysts rate it a buy, median target $170 (+28%), and Evercore ISI Group (most reliable on TOL, 80%) targets $184. Weigh that against valuation and volatility. This is not personalized advice.

Is it too late to invest in Toll Brothers?

Not according to analysts: the median target ($170) is still +28% above the current price ($133) (most reliable on TOL: Evercore ISI Group, 80%). The real question isn't "too late" but the price-to-value gap and risk. Not advice.

Is Toll Brothers still worth investing in?

It depends on the gap between the price ($133) and its estimated value: analysts target $170 on median (+28%), with 89% buys (most reliable on TOL: Evercore ISI Group, 80%). Cross-check with their real reliability on TOL and the cautions above. Information, not advice.

What's the main risk in buying TOL?

The consensus is not unanimous: of 9 ratings, 1 is a sell.

→ Go deeper: the full Toll Brothers profile (consensus, analyst reliability, price target, performance).