CF Industries (CF) stock: analyst price target and their real reliability
Live quote · data updated Aug 28, 2026
CF Industries · Materials · ref. ETF XLB · 51 calls · price $125.71
What the company does: CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally.
📈 CF Industries (CF) stock price
$125.71+44.0% over range
Aug 28, 25low $76.09 · high $137.6Aug 27, 26
📏 Click 2 points (left → right) to measure the change · click again to clear.
SellBuy
Hold
33% recommend buying · 12 analysts
📊 JPI status : CF Industries is no longer in our current JPI rankings, but appeared in the past (2016) — its upside may be behind it. See the stocks picked in 2016 →
⚠️ The stock trades above the median target: it has beaten expectations. The “Hold” reflects conviction on the company, but the remaining quantified upside is low/negative.
🎯 CF price target & analyst consensus — price $126
The price target · all analysts combined (12 targets)
Highest target · 1 firm of 12$150+19.3%
Median target · of 12 targets$125.5-0.2%
Lowest target · 1 firm of 12$103-18.1%
Current price$125.71
Where these 12 targets sit · versus the current price · 1 target per firm, last 6 months
Above the price
650%
$128 ↔ $150
Below
650%
$103 ↔ $123
⭐ What the most reliable analysts say
· those who beat their sector, targets replayed on real prices
⭐ The most reliable of them, either direction: UBS — 64% of its targets hit on this sector (176 calls tested). It aims for $123 (-2.2 %), call made on August 8, 2026, maturing on August 8, 2027 (20 d ago).
The 4 reliable analysts
$115-8.5 %
The 8 other firms
$131+4.2 %
How to read it: the 4 reliable firms are not filtered by optimism — 0 aim above the price, 4 below, hence their $115 median. “The 8 others” are the firms that don't pass our reliability filter on this sector.
The consensus · 12 ratings (last 6 months)
Strong Buy00%
Buy433%
Hold650%
Sell217%
Strong Sell00%
Go deeper on the analysts
🎯 CF price target all
All 51 calls, one by one, with our verdict on each firm.
→ See all 51 targets, analyst by analyst💡 The best analysts on CF most reliable
The case for and against, with the numbers, per those who've been right on the stock.
→ Should you invest in CF? The case for & againstAll analysts (the consensus) · vs · the best (those who've been right)
💬 A question about CF Industries? The JPI assistant answers using our backtest data.
💰 CF Industries dividend: yield, history & growth › open the full page
1.85%annual yield
That's ~$2.00 per share per year.
📈 CF Industries fundamentals: valuation, margins & growth › open the full page
P/E 9.3Net margin 27.1 %Revenue growth +17.6 %Cheap for the growth
Revenue, net income and margin per year
Revenue Net income · hover a bar for details
2022
marg. 30 %
2023
Rev −41%Profit −54%
2024
Rev −10%Profit −20%
2025
Rev +19%Profit +19%
🔎 Detailed analyses
🏛️ Which US Congress members hold CF Industries (CF)?
2 Congress members have disclosed CF buys. Click a highlighted name to see their track record (do they beat the S&P 500?).
Virginia Foxx 4× · 38%Gilbert Cisneros 1× · 48%
✅ Historical analyst reliability on CF
Hit rate measured on targets already matured (12 months), replayed against real prices. Click a header to sort.
| Firm ↕ | % right i ↕ | Gain vs sector i ↕ | Calls i ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC ↗ | 100% | +72.5% | 2 |
| Bernstein ↗ | 100% | +7.2% | 2 |
| BMO Capital ↗ | 75% | +2.0% | 4 |
| Wells Fargo ↗ | 73% | +14.4% | 11 |
| CLSA | 67% | +19.6% | 3 |
| Credit Suisse | 64% | +12.7% | 14 |
| Scotiabank ↗ | 60% | +2.3% | 5 |
| B of A Securities ↗ | 57% | -1.7% | 14 |
| Barclays ↗ | 57% | -1.9% | 14 |
| UBS ↗ | 50% | +13.2% | 14 |
See the other 11 firms
| Dahlman Rose | 25% | -9.4% | 4 |
| Citigroup ↗ | 33% | -7.3% | 12 |
| Cowen & Co. | 33% | -3.6% | 3 |
| JP Morgan ↗ | 33% | +1.6% | 3 |
| Feltl & Co. | 33% | +2.8% | 3 |
| Piper Sandler ↗ | 36% | -5.3% | 11 |
| RBC Capital ↗ | 46% | -3.5% | 13 |
| Goldman Sachs ↗ | 50% | -7.7% | 4 |
| Oppenheimer ↗ | 50% | -4.5% | 2 |
| Atlantic Equities | 50% | +2.0% | 2 |
| Susquehanna ↗ | 50% | +3.7% | 2 |
📊 What $1,000 invested in CF Industries would be worth › open the full page
In short — $1,000 invested in CF Industries 10 years ago would be worth $2,653 today, i.e. +10%/yr on average. Best year: 2021 (+83%), worst: 2016 (-23%). Price performance, excluding dividends.
If I'd invested $1,000 in CF Industries
| Investment | Worth today | Gain |
|---|---|---|
| 1 years ago | $1,269 | +27% |
| 3 years ago | $1,271 | +27% |
| 5 years ago | $2,797 | +180% |
Return by year (CF Industries)
| Year | Return | $1,000 invested at year start |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (YTD) | +40% | $1,400 (+40%) |
| 2025 | -9% | $1,269 (+27%) |
| 2024 | +7% | $1,362 (+36%) |
⚠️ Past performance, not predictive nor advice. Prices in $, excluding dividends. Yahoo Finance data.
📰 Recent news on CF Industries
Loading news…
📋 All analyst calls on CF
Filtered on — · ✕ show all
Scotiabank ↗
Aug 10, 26
▲ Sector Outperform · 🎯$130
Price at call : $117.8 — upside +10%
Today : $125.71 — upside +3%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 10, 27
matures : Aug 10, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$123
Price at call : $121.48 — gap to target +1%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -2%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 8, 27
matures : Aug 8, 27
RBC Capital ↗
Jul 17, 26
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$115
Price at call : $123.57 — gap to target -7%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -9%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 44.7% · -3.0% (188 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jul 17, 27
matures : Jul 17, 27
Morgan Stanley ↗
Jul 7, 26
■ Equal-Weight neutral · not a buy · 🎯$115
Price at call : $114.94 — gap to target +0%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -9%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.3% · +4.3% (150 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jul 7, 27
matures : Jul 7, 27
Scotiabank ↗
Jun 30, 26
▲ Sector Outperform · 🎯$125
Price at call : $108.16 — upside +16%
Today : $125.71 — upside -1%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jun 30, 27
matures : Jun 30, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$115
Price at call : $117.52 — gap to target -2%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -9%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 50.2% · +0.1% (217 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jun 3, 27
matures : Jun 3, 27
Scotiabank ↗
May 11, 26
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$120
Price at call : $130.39 — gap to target -8%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -5%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : May 11, 27
matures : May 11, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$128
Price at call : $122.69 — gap to target +4%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target +2%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 54.5% · +10.1% (11 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : May 1, 27
matures : May 1, 27
See the other 43 calls, newest to oldest
▲ Overweight · 🎯$145
Price at call : $122.31 — upside +19%
Today : $125.71 — upside +15%
🎯 on CF : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 53.2% · +1.9% (154 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 27, 27
matures : Apr 27, 27
Scotiabank ↗
Apr 20, 26
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$115
Price at call : $121.31 — gap to target -5%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -9%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 20, 27
matures : Apr 20, 27
▲ Overweight · 🎯$130
Price at call : $115.94 — upside +12%
Today : $125.71 — upside +3%
🎯 on CF : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 53.2% · +1.9% (154 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 17, 27
matures : Apr 17, 27
Goldman Sachs ↗
Apr 14, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$132
Price at call : $120.81 — gap to target +9%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target +5%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 49.5% · +4.3% (99 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 14, 27
matures : Apr 14, 27
Morgan Stanley ↗
Apr 8, 26
■ Equal-Weight neutral · not a buy · 🎯$135
Price at call : $119.38 — gap to target +13%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target +7%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.3% · +4.3% (150 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Apr 8, 27
matures : Apr 8, 27
▼ Underperform · 🎯$105
Price at call : $127.98 — upside -18%
Today : $125.71 — upside -16%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 40% · -3.0% (95 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 31, 27
matures : Mar 31, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$140
Price at call : $136.45 — gap to target +3%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target +11%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 26, 27
matures : Mar 26, 27
B of A Securities ↗
Mar 18, 26
▼ Underperform · 🎯$103
Price at call : $125.56 — upside -18%
Today : $125.71 — upside -18%
🎯 on CF : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 50% · -0.3% (180 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 18, 27
matures : Mar 18, 27
BMO Capital ↗
Mar 18, 26
▲ Outperform · 🎯$140
Price at call : $125.56 — upside +12%
Today : $125.71 — upside +11%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.4% · +3.9% (140 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 18, 27
matures : Mar 18, 27
▼ Underperform · 🎯$100
Price at call : $126.73 — upside -21%
Today : $125.71 — upside -20%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 40% · -3.0% (95 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 18, 27
matures : Mar 18, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$118
Price at call : $126.73 — gap to target -7%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -6%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 54.5% · +10.1% (11 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 17, 27
matures : Mar 17, 27
Wells Fargo ↗
Mar 13, 26
▲ Overweight · 🎯$150
Price at call : $122.33 — upside +23%
Today : $125.71 — upside +19%
🎯 on CF : 100% (2 calls matureds) · 📊 on Materials : 36.8% · -6.1% (204 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 13, 27
matures : Mar 13, 27
▲ Overweight · 🎯$120
Price at call : $104.71 — upside +15%
Today : $125.71 — upside -5%
🎯 on CF : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 53.2% · +1.9% (154 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Mar 3, 27
matures : Mar 3, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$97
Price at call : $96.14 — gap to target +1%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -23%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 24, 27
matures : Feb 24, 27
Scotiabank ↗
Feb 23, 26
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$85
Price at call : $96.11 — gap to target -12%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -32%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 23, 27
matures : Feb 23, 27
RBC Capital ↗
Feb 23, 26
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$100
Price at call : $96.11 — gap to target +4%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -20%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 44.7% · -3.0% (188 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 23, 27
matures : Feb 23, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$94
Price at call : $95.45 — gap to target -2%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -25%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 50.2% · +0.1% (217 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 20, 27
matures : Feb 20, 27
Wells Fargo ↗
Feb 20, 26
▲ Overweight · 🎯$113
Price at call : $95.45 — upside +18%
Today : $125.71 — upside -10%
🎯 on CF : 100% (2 calls matureds) · 📊 on Materials : 36.8% · -6.1% (204 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 20, 27
matures : Feb 20, 27
Scotiabank ↗
Feb 2, 26
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$82
Price at call : $92.5 — gap to target -11%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -35%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Feb 2, 27
matures : Feb 2, 27
RBC Capital ↗
Jan 20, 26
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$95
Price at call : $91.86 — gap to target +3%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -24%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 44.7% · -3.0% (188 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jan 20, 27
matures : Jan 20, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$80
Price at call : $86.75 — gap to target -8%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -36%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 50.2% · +0.1% (217 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jan 15, 27
matures : Jan 15, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$86
Price at call : $82.87 — gap to target +4%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -32%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jan 12, 27
matures : Jan 12, 27
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$88
Price at call : $78.29 — gap to target +12%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -30%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 40% · -3.0% (95 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 18, 26
matures : Dec 18, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$87
Price at call : $79.29 — gap to target +10%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -31%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 54.5% · +10.1% (11 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Dec 2, 26
matures : Dec 2, 26
Wells Fargo ↗
Nov 11, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$100
Price at call : $84.75 — upside +18%
Today : $125.71 — upside -20%
🎯 on CF : 100% (2 calls matureds) · 📊 on Materials : 36.8% · -6.1% (204 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 11, 26
matures : Nov 11, 26
RBC Capital ↗
Nov 10, 25
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$95
Price at call : $83.68 — gap to target +14%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -24%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 44.7% · -3.0% (188 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 10, 26
matures : Nov 10, 26
Scotiabank ↗
Nov 10, 25
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$90
Price at call : $83.68 — gap to target +8%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -28%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 10, 26
matures : Nov 10, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$91
Price at call : $82.03 — gap to target +11%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -28%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 6, 26
matures : Nov 6, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$92
Price at call : $82.03 — gap to target +12%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -27%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 40% · -3.0% (95 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Nov 6, 26
matures : Nov 6, 26
Wells Fargo ↗
Oct 16, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$105
Price at call : $83.02 — upside +26%
Today : $125.71 — upside -16%
🎯 on CF : 100% (2 calls matureds) · 📊 on Materials : 36.8% · -6.1% (204 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Oct 16, 26
matures : Oct 16, 26
B of A Securities ↗
Oct 14, 25
▼ Underperform · 🎯$83
Price at call : $86.73 — upside -4%
Today : $125.71 — upside -34%
🎯 on CF : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 50% · -0.3% (180 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Oct 14, 26
matures : Oct 14, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$100
Price at call : $88.61 — gap to target +13%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -20%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 40% · -3.0% (95 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Oct 9, 26
matures : Oct 9, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$96
Price at call : $91.97 — gap to target +4%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -24%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Oct 6, 26
matures : Oct 6, 26
B of A Securities ↗
Aug 14, 25
▼ Underperform · 🎯$82
Price at call : $85.27 — upside -4%
Today : $125.71 — upside -35%
Expected -4% · Actual +39% · Reason (≤ −15%) : ✗ No
🎯 on CF : 0% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 50% · -0.3% (180 calls)
-38.7%
stock +39% · XLB +17%
matured Aug 14, 26
▲ Overweight · 🎯$100
Price at call : $86.42 — upside +16%
Today : $125.71 — upside -20%
Expected +16% · Actual +35% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on CF : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 53.2% · +1.9% (154 calls)
+35.4%
stock +35% · XLB +15%
matured Aug 13, 26
Scotiabank ↗
Aug 11, 25
■ Sector Perform neutral · not a buy · 🎯$82
Price at call : $82.9 — gap to target -1%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -35%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 42.4% · +8.5% (33 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 11, 26
matures : Aug 11, 26
Wells Fargo ↗
Aug 11, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$101
Price at call : $82.9 — upside +22%
Today : $125.71 — upside -20%
Expected +22% · Actual +45% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on CF : 100% (2 calls matureds) · 📊 on Materials : 36.8% · -6.1% (204 calls)
+44.8%
stock +45% · XLB +18%
matured Aug 11, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$101
Price at call : $80.91 — gap to target +25%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -20%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Aug 7, 26
matures : Aug 7, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$92
Price at call : $94.91 — gap to target -3%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -27%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 50.2% · +0.1% (217 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jul 29, 26
matures : Jul 29, 26
■ Neutral neutral · not a buy · 🎯$103
Price at call : $93.5 — gap to target +10%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -18%
🎯 on CF : no call matured yet · 📊 on Materials : 51.1% · +10.7% (176 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jul 23, 26
matures : Jul 23, 26
Wells Fargo ↗
Jul 17, 25
▲ Overweight · 🎯$108
Price at call : $92.63 — upside +17%
Today : $125.71 — upside -14%
Expected +17% · Actual +33% · Reason (≥ +15%) : ✓ Yes
🎯 on CF : 100% (2 calls matureds) · 📊 on Materials : 36.8% · -6.1% (204 calls)
+33.4%
stock +33% · XLB +11%
matured Jul 17, 26
■ Equal-Weight neutral · not a buy · 🎯$95
Price at call : $97.12 — gap to target -2%
Today : $125.71 — gap to target -24%
🎯 on CF : 100% (1 call matured) · 📊 on Materials : 53.2% · +1.9% (154 calls)
in progress (365j)
matures : Jul 7, 26
matures : Jul 7, 26
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy CF Industries stock?
This isn't buy advice. For CF Industries, the analyst consensus is "Hold", with an average price target of $126 (0% vs the current price). What matters is their past reliability on this stock: the most reliable one is right 100% of the time (2 calls tracked on CF Industries). We show the numbers — you decide.
Is it too late to buy CF Industries? How high can it go?
The most bullish analyst target on CF Industries is $150 (+19% above today's price); the average is $126. That's the upside they see. Check how reliable those analysts have actually been on CF Industries on our site before trusting it.
Is CF Industries still a good buy?
The most useful "opinion" isn't an opinion — it's a track record: 21 analysts have a real record on CF Industries, the best hitting 100% over 2 calls. Current consensus: "Hold". Make your call on data, not noise.
Should you invest in CF Industries? The case for and against
The arguments for and against, one by one, from the numbers: why invest in CF (and why hesitate).
What has CF Industries's past performance been?
Historical returns and a "how much if I had invested" calculator: CF performance & returns.
Does CF Industries pay a dividend?
Yield, consistency and growth history of the dividend: CF's dividend.
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