Does Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock go up or down depending on the month?
Harley-Davidson month by month, year by year
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.4% | -9.1% | +12.3% | +18.2% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +0.3% | |||||
| 2025 | -10.2% | -4.8% | -2.0% | -11.2% | +8.0% | -2.5% | +3.1% | +19.7% | -4.2% | -3.3% | -9.2% | -16.3% |
| 2024 | -11.9% | +11.8% | +20.6% | -21.4% | +4.3% | -6.5% | +11.8% | -0.2% | +2.9% | -17.1% | +5.3% | -10.4% |
| 2023 | +10.6% | +3.3% | -20.1% | -2.3% | -16.1% | +13.2% | +9.7% | -12.6% | -2.0% | -18.8% | +11.7% | +22.8% |
| 2022 | -8.3% | +19.5% | -4.6% | -7.5% | -3.5% | -10.0% | +19.4% | +2.0% | -9.6% | +23.3% | +9.6% | -11.7% |
| 2021 | +9.2% | -11.0% | +12.4% | +20.6% | +0.2% | -5.5% | -13.5% | -0.2% | -7.4% | -0.3% | +0.4% | +2.9% |
| 2020 | -10.2% | -8.8% | -37.9% | +15.3% | -2.2% | +11.4% | +9.5% | +6.5% | -11.4% | +34.0% | +22.5% | -8.9% |
| 2019 | +8.0% | +0.7% | -3.9% | +4.4% | -12.1% | +9.5% | -0.1% | -10.8% | +12.8% | +8.2% | -6.5% | +2.2% |
| 2018 | -4.8% | -6.4% | -5.5% | -4.1% | -0.1% | +2.4% | +1.9% | -0.6% | +6.3% | -15.6% | +10.6% | -19.3% |
| 2017 | -2.2% | -1.2% | +7.3% | -6.1% | -6.7% | +1.9% | -9.9% | -3.4% | +2.6% | -1.8% | +6.0% | +1.4% |
| 2016 | -11.9% | +7.9% | +18.9% | -6.8% | -3.0% | -2.3% | +16.8% | -0.4% | -0.2% | +8.4% | +6.8% | -4.2% |
| 2015 | -6.4% | +3.0% | -4.5% | -7.5% | -4.8% | +5.3% | +3.5% | -3.9% | -2.1% | -9.9% | -1.1% | -7.2% |
| 2014 | -10.9% | +7.1% | +0.8% | +11.0% | -3.7% | -2.0% | -11.5% | +2.8% | -8.4% | +12.9% | +6.1% | -5.4% |
| 2013 | +0.4% | +1.3% | +2.5% | -0.2% | +0.5% | +3.6% | +5.7% | +7.1% | -0.3% | +4.7% | +3.3% | |
| Average | -4.0% | +0.9% | -0.3% | +0.4% | -2.8% | +1.2% | +3.2% | +0.3% | -1.1% | +1.5% | +5.1% | -3.9% |
| % of years up | 23% | 57% | 50% | 43% | 29% | 57% | 71% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 77% | 38% |
| Years observed | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Harley-Davidson month by month: the summary
Over 2013-2026, here's what Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock did each month, on average: January -4.0% (up 23% of 13 years), February +0.9% (up 57% of 14 years), March -0.3% (up 50% of 14 years), April +0.4% (up 43% of 14 years), May -2.8% (up 29% of 14 years), June +1.2% (up 57% of 14 years), July +3.2% (up 71% of 14 years), August +0.3% (up 38% of 13 years), September -1.1% (up 38% of 13 years), October +1.5% (up 38% of 13 years), November +5.1% (up 77% of 13 years), December -3.9% (up 38% of 13 years). In other words, HOG historically rose in February, April, June, July, August, October, November, and fell in January, March, May, September, December.
Does Harley-Davidson really go up in November?
Over 2013-2026, November is Harley-Davidson's strongest month: +5.1% on average, positive in 10 of 13 years. At the other end, January shows -4.0%. But a monthly gap is often built on one or two extreme years — the table above shows it: look at the spread, not just the average. Seasonality only means something when it has a cause (selling season, earnings calendar, year-end tax effects); with no identified cause, it's probably noise.
Frequently asked questions
Does Harley-Davidson stock go up or down in August?
Over 13 years, HOG rose +0.3% on average in August, finishing the month up 5 times out of 13 (38%). Median: -0.2%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Harley-Davidson stock go up or down in December?
Over 13 years, HOG fell -3.9% on average in December, finishing the month up 5 times out of 13 (38%). Median: -5.4%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Harley-Davidson stock go up or down in July?
Over 14 years, HOG rose +3.2% on average in July, finishing the month up 10 times out of 14 (71%). Median: +3.3%. It's one of its most consistent months. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Harley-Davidson stock go up or down in May?
Over 14 years, HOG fell -2.8% on average in May, finishing the month up 4 times out of 14 (29%). Median: -2.6%. It's one of its weakest months. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Harley-Davidson stock go up or down in October?
Over 13 years, HOG rose +1.5% on average in October, finishing the month up 5 times out of 13 (38%). Median: -0.3%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 13 years of data is not a prediction.
Does Harley-Davidson stock go up or down in June?
Over 14 years, HOG rose +1.2% on average in June, finishing the month up 8 times out of 14 (57%). Median: +0.8%. Results are split year to year — there's no clear pattern. ⚠️ 14 years of data is not a prediction.
What is the best month to buy Harley-Davidson stock?
Historically, November: over the last 14 years, HOG gained +5.1% on average that month and finished up 77% of the time (13 years observed). January is the weakest month (-4.0%). This is not a prediction: 14 years is a small sample, and the past is under no obligation to repeat.
Do Harley-Davidson's quarterly earnings move the stock?
January — when Harley-Davidson reports quarterly earnings — has been its weakest month over 14 years (-4.0% on average, up 23% of years). Earnings are a known driver of moves. ⚠️ This is a past tendency over a short history, not a rule. Use it as context, never as a buy plan.
Why does Harley-Davidson stock often rise in November?
November has averaged as its best month over 14 years (+5.1%, up 77% of years). No clearly established recurring seasonal driver explains this month — it's a statistical tendency over 14 years of history, not a prediction.
Why is Harley-Davidson stock weaker in January?
January has averaged as its weakest month over 14 years (-4.0%, up only 23% of years). This month covers Harley-Davidson's quarterly earnings release — a known driver of moves, and over this history it has tended to weigh on the stock.
Is there a best month to invest in the stock market in general?
There's no universal rule: every stock has its own seasonality. For HOG it's November (+5.1% on average over 14 years) — another stock will look completely different. The calendar effects people cite ("sell in May", the year-end rally) are market-wide averages, not laws: on HOG, November is the most consistent month (77% positive years). We also rank all 12 months for the whole market.
Does stock seasonality actually work?
Careful. A month that rose 14 times out of 14 can simply be chance: with 12 months and a dozen years, patterns appear naturally even in random data. Seasonality describes what happened; it doesn't explain why and predicts nothing. Treat it as context, never as a standalone buy signal.
What data is this table based on?
On HOG's real monthly closing prices from 2013 to 2026 (14 years), source Yahoo Finance. Each cell = the price change over that month. Price performance, excluding dividends. Incomplete months and quote gaps are excluded.